USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3680-1.3779        

The Canadian dollar was the worst performing G-10 currency last week and the outlook isn’t very rosy for this week, either. The Loonie has been absolutely crushed by Opec’s decision to keep pumping crude.  The prospect of “over-supply for–longer” was exacerbated by comments by the Iran Oil Minister. He said that Iran will pump oil even if oil prices fall below $30/barrel and that production would reach 1 million barrels/day in a few months.

However, it appears that USDCAD traders may have gotten a little ahead of themselves especially given the uncertainty surrounding the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. USDCAD opened in New York near the overnight high and then profit taking led to intraday stops being triggered on the move below 1.3740.  A break below 1.3690 would lead to further losses to 1.3640.

Asia FX was focused on Chinese data which was modestly better than expected. It didn’t translate into much trading due to ongoing concerns that China’s introduction of the China Foreign Exchange Trade system (CFETS) was a prelude to a weaker CNY. The Japan Tankan survey did not deliver anything that would influence the Bank of Japan’s policy statement on Friday.

G-10 currencies were mixed in Europe and awaiting the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. There isn’t any Canadian or US data released today

 USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3690-1.3705 which is guarding another uptrend line at 1.3650.  Both uptrends are looking for a break of 1.3770-80 area to extend gains to 1.3860 and eventually 1.4000.  Only a move below 1.3620 negates the topside.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3680 and 1.3650 Resistance is at 1.3770, 1.3810 and 1.3860

Forecasted Range for the day 1.3660-1.3750

Chart USDCAD 30 minute