USDCAD closed at 1.3421 on Friday, and that is where it sits in early New York trading.  The impact from a stellar Canadian employment ( +55,900) report in the face of much weaker than expected US nonfarm payrolls (+20,000) data was fleeting.  USDCAD dropped from 1.3460 to 1.3390 but remains in an intraday and longer-term uptrend. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech didn’t offer anything new.  He said although core inflation is quite close to 2%, there were “cross-currents” and that there is “nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response.”

GBPUSD gapped lower at the Asia open, falling from 1.3015 to 1.2906 due to negative Brexit news. Prices have since recovered to 1.3006 in New York trading. The UK/EU talks are reportedly “deadlocked.”  Negotiators have been unable to find a solution to the Irish border backstop issue. UK MP’s are supposed to vote on May’s Brexit plan on Tuesday.  If she loses, they vote on whether to leave without a deal on Wednesday, followed by a vote Thursday to ask for an extension of Article 50.

EURUSD drifted aimlessly in a 1.1224-49 range. Prices have climbed steadily from Thursday’s Post-ECB low of 1.1178 but need a break above 1.1290 to relieve the downside pressure.  Soft German Export and Industrial Production data weighed on the single currency.

In Asia, AUDUSD dipped on renewed talk that the RBA may cut interest rates, but the move didn’t last, and prices climbed back to Friday’s closing level.  NZDUSD tracked AUDUSD moves in a somewhat chippy session Electronic Card Retail Sales were a tad weaker than forecast.

WTI oil prices climbed from $55.98/barrel to $ 56.76/b, supported by a drop in the US rig count and by news Saudi Arabia will cut crude exports to below 7.0 million barrels per day in April.

US January Retail Sales are expected to rebound to 0.2%, m/m from December’s -1.8% result.  December Business Inventories are expected to rise 0.6% from -0.1%.  There are not any Canadian reports.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD are bullish while prices are above 1.3405, looking for a break of resistance in the 1.3460-80 area to extend gains to 1.3560 and then 1.3660. A break below 1.3405 would lead back to 1.3380 and then 1.3340.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3405 and 1.3380.  Resistanced is at 1.3460 and 1.3480.