October 28, 2019

USDCAD open 1.3058-62 (6:00 am EDT)    Overnight Range 1.3057-1.3076

FX action has been a tad less than exciting to start the week.  That will change as the October fades into November thanks to Wednesday’s Bank of Canada and FOMC policy meetings, Canadian and US employment reports on Friday, along with the usual month end portfolio flows.

The US dollar opened in New York, barely changed from Friday’s closing levels.

FX Market Snapshot

Change in currency value against the US dollar from New York close to New York open 

Brexit fans will be pleased to learn that European Council President Donald Tusk confirmed that the EU27 agreed to extend the negotiating deadline until January 31, 2020. The news wasn’t unexpected and GBPUSD, which traded in a 1.2813-58 range, drifted toward the bottom of that band.

EURUSD traded sideways in a 1.1077-1.1096 range with traders content to await the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

USDJPY traded steadily near the top of last week’s range as risk sentiment stays positive. The US/China trade talks are marching steadily towards a “Phase 1” deal announcement at the November 17-17 APEC meeting. US 10 year Treasury yields have climbed from 1.754% on Friday to 1.837% this morning.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD inched higher on the back of the trade news. NZDUSD moves were muted do a New Zealand holiday.

US/China trade talk progress underpinned oil prices. WTI oil climbed to $56.40/barrel from $52.70/b last week and prices are trading at the top of that range in New York.

The oil price rally contributed to selling pressure against USDCAD which is also being sold due to bearish technicals, strong domestic data and expectations that the Bank of Canada will leave rates unchanged on Wednesday.

There are any notable economic releases from the US or Canada today.  FX markets will look to Wall Street and/or trade headlines for direction.

USDCAD Technical View

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3105, looking for support in the 1.3040 area to give-way and target the 1.2990 1.3010 level.  A break above 1.3110 would target 1.3180. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3040 and 1.3010.   Resistance is 1.3090 and 1.3110. Today’s Range 1.3040-1.3090

Chart: USDCAD 1 month

Source Saxo Bank