USDCAD Overnight Range 1.27778-1.2830
USDCAD spiked to 1.2830 on a weak Canadian Wholesale Sales report (-3.1% vs. -0.8% forecast) but has since retreated back to pre-data levels (1.2800). The Loonie was already back-tracking as oil prices continued to leak lower. (WTI $42.28/bbl) and a hawkish FOMC statement could be the straw that breaks the Loonies back. If the FOMC statement or press conference convinces traders that June is the likely lift-off date for US rates-that and falling oil prices will send the Loon to the moon.
In a surprise move,Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates by 0.15 bps to -0.25 to combat SEK strength which created a bit of a stir among USDSEK and EURSEK traders.
Elsewhere, patience is wearing thin over the incessant, intense chatter on patience in the FOMC statement. Enough already. Kiwi and Cable were the live wires overnight. Kiwi has recovered a good chunk of its losses following the poor GlobalDairyTrade auction. That is more a factor of pre-FOMC position adjustment than anything else. Cable got whacked on a combination of a soft employment report and on-going election jitters. The rest of the majors were content to idle within narrow ranges.
USDCAD technical Outlook
The March USDCAD rally remains intact above 1.2760 looking for a break of 1.2820 to extend gains to 1.2880 and then 1.2950. A break of 1.2760 risks a retest of 1.2710 and then 1.2660
Today’s Range 1.2770-1.2870