February 18, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3656, overnight range 1.3632.-1.3668, close 1.3638

USDCAD traded sideways in another quiet overnight session. The Canadian dollar shrugged off yesterday’s soft inflation report. Headline CPI was 0% m/m (forecast 0.1%), while core CPI rose 2.3% compared to expectations for a 2.4% increase. The numbers were in line with BoC predictions and won’t do anything to change monetary policy.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada’s New Defence Strategy yesterday. He said it “positions Canadian industry to take advantage of $180 billion in defence procurement opportunities and $290 billion in defence-related capital investment opportunities in Canada over the next 10 years, with an anticipated $125 billion downstream economic benefit by 2035.”

WTI oil recouped yesterday’s losses, rising from 62.12 to 63.99, where it sits in early NY trading. The gains are due to the latest media reports suggesting that a US attack on Iran is “imminent.” Such a move risks a loss of oil supply if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are slightly bullish while prices are above 1.3615 but remain in the January 27-February 6, 1.3490-1.3720 range.  A  move above 1.3705 targets 1.3750 while a break below 1.3610 puts 1.3550 in play. 1.3615 would shift the focus back toward 1.3580 and then 1.3550.

The medium-term technicals are bearish, supported by price remaining below the downtrend line from November at 1.3840 and looking for a break below 1.3520 to extend losses to the 1.3460-80 zone.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3620 and 1.3590. Resistance is at 1.3670 and 1.3710.

Today’s Range: 1.3610-1.3710

FOMC Minutes on Tap

The US dollar is marginally higher in early NY trading following another subdued overnight session.

Markets will be poring through the FOMC minutes from the January 28 Fed meeting, hoping to find some clarity on the path for US interest rates. During the January 28 press conference, Fed Chair Powell seemed content to leave rates unchanged and suggested that policymakers were “well-positioned” to address risks “after three rate cuts.” He noted that the employment rate has “been relatively stable” and that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Since then, recent employment data has leaned toward the soft side.

Lots of Data, Little Interest

The US released a slew of second-tier economic reports today. December Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in December but non defence capital goods orders ex defence rose 0.6%, and November’s result was revised up to 0.8% from 0.7%. Housing Starts rose 6.2% in November.  Still to come- Capacity Utilization and the FOMC minutes.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets were quiet due to extended holidays. Japan’s Topix rose 1.21%, while Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.54%. Chinese markets were closed.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are in the green. The UK FTSE 100 is up 0.97%, the German DAX has gained 0.66%, and the French CAC-40 is up 0.29%. S&P 500 futures have climbed 0.38%, the US Dollar Index is at 97.23, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.073%, and gold (XAUUSD) has rallied from 4853.86 and sits at 4924967.56.6.91.

EURUSD

EURUSD trickled lower in a 1.1829–1.1858 range and is at the bottom of the band in early NY. ECB President Christine Lagarde is reportedly planning to quit ahead of the expiration of her term. The decision is meant to let President Macron have input into her successor before the 2027 French presidential election.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD drifted sideways in a 1.3550–1.3583 range and was unable to gain traction in either direction despite the release of inflation reports. UK CPI rose 3.0% y/y in January, as expected but below the 3.4% seen in December. PPI data was a mixed bag, and Retail Sales were weak (retail sales actual 3.8% y/y, forecast 3.9%, previous 4.2%). Even though inflation was a tad stickier, the BoE is still expected to cut rates next month.

USDJPY

USDJPY rallied from 153.07 to 153.86 after Trump tweeted, “Our MASSIVE Trade Deal with Japan has just launched! Japan is now officially, and financially, moving forward with the FIRST set of investments under its $550 BILLION dollar commitment to invest in the United States of America.”

Japan Prime Minister Takaichi merely said that both countries agreed on the first projects but did not mention whether any money was flowing.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD inched higher in a 0.7064–0.7088 range in a quiet market due to Asian holidays. Prices were supported by AUDNZD demand after the RBNZ left rates unchanged at 2.25% and issued a tame statement.

USDMXN

USDMXN extended yesterday’s drop in a 17.0867–17.1550 range. The currency pair remains on the defensive following a series of soft employment reports that have opened the door to Fed rate cuts earlier than expected. Mexico and Canada have announced a joint economic action plan for a post-CUSMA future. So far, the announcement is just a word salad dressed up as progress, and no details will be available until the second half of the year.

China

USDCNY Fix: Closed for Lunar New Year

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300:  Closed for Lunar New Year

FX  open high low

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview