May 21, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3767, overnight range 1.3739-1.3777, close 1.3744
USDCAD continues to be supported by CAD/US 2 and 10-year bond spreads that favour the US dollar which became more pronounced after the release of hawkish FOMC minutes. For now, domestic data, and political developments are non-factors.
WTI oil prices bounced around in a 96.92-102.79 in the past 24 hours on hopes that the US/Iran war would soon be over. Traders are not aggressively buying into that sentiment and WTI is trading at 101.33 in NY.
US weekly jobless claims rose 209,000 compared to the forecast of 210,000 and the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 0.4 (forecast 18). Housing Starts were 1.465 million (previous 1.507 million and Building Permits rose 5.8%. The results were ignored.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish while above the 1.3740 and looking to break above 1.3780 to test resistance in the 1.3850 area.
The longer-term daily technicals are bullish inside the 100-and 200 day moving average band at 1.3722 and 1.3813. The daily RSI at 83.60 is at the extreme overbought threshold and is warning that USDCAD is stretched.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3750 and 1.3720. Resistance is at 1.3800 and 1.3820. Today’s range: 1.3740–1.3810.
FX Heat FX open high low 6:00 am
FX open high low 6:00 am
Earnings, Iran and an IPO
Traders are digesting a slew of competing influences even as participants in two major markets, the UK and US, look forward to a long weekend. Monday is Memorial Day in America and in Britain, it’s the Late May Bank Holiday.
The eagerly awaited Nvidia Q1 2027 earnings were impressive. The company delivered another record‑breaking quarter, but the news was overshadowed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO prospectus. At first blush, and if everything comes up roses, SpaceX will have a value of around $1.5 trillion for a company that lost $4.95 billion in 2025. Even better, for Elon, he will control around 85.1% of the voting stock.
Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages which sank oil prices on hopes that the US and Iran war was finally ending. They ignored his threat about doing “some things that are nasty” if Iran doesn’t come to terms. Pakistan is working feverishly with Iran negotiators to ink a deal but so far Iran has not issued any response to Trump.
The FOMC minutes had a hawkish bias which underpinned Treasury yields and supported the US dollar.
Taking Stock
Asian equities were mixed. Japan’s Topix rallied 1.64%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed by 1.47% while the Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 1.03%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are in retreat. The French CAC 40 is down 0.47% and the German DAX has lost 0.53%. The UK FTSE 100 has dropped 0.28%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.38%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.613%, DXY is 99.37 and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,512.58.
EURUSD | Range: 1.1594-1.1635
EURUSD consolidated gains from yesterday in a tight band but intraday sentiment and the technicals are bearish below 1.1650. German and Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI data were below expectations. The single currency found some support on cautious optimism around the war in Iran and reports that the ECB would hike rates in June.
GBPUSD | Range: 1.3375-1.3407
GBPUSD caught a bid yesterday, on the back of positive risk sentiment from fresh hopes for an end to US and Iran hostilities. However, the gains will be limited due to the hawkish tone from the FOMC minutes. UK PMI data was mixed to soft which is another negative for the currency pair. The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.3410 and looking for a test of 1.3470. A break below 1.3410 puts 1.3300 in play.
USDJPY | Range: 158.81-159.09
USDJPY continued to trade sideways albeit with a bullish bias due to hawkish FOMC minutes underpinning US Treasury yields and because of still elevated crude prices. Japanese Manufacturing PMI data at 54.5 was expected and ignored. The threat of intervention is diminished while prices are below 160.00.
AUDUSD | Range: 0.7100-0.7159
AUDUSD traded choppily due to weaker than expected employment numbers. Australia lost 18,600 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. The news reduced the already low odds for a rate hike in June.
USDMXN | Range: 17.2903-17.3674
USDMXN is clawing back losses from yesterday after Moody’s cut Mexico’s debt rating to Baa3 from Baa2, which is one notch above junk. Moody’s justified the move by noting Mexico has a “sustained weakening in fiscal strength” which they expect to persist. The USDMXN technicals are bearish below 17.5000.
CHINA
- USDCNY Fix: 6.8349 vs exp. 6.7955 (prev. 6.8397)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.39% to 4,783.10
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
