June 15, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3972, overnight range 1.3950-1.3992, close 1.3989
USDCAD is trading with a negative bias on the heels of Trump’s declaration of peace with Iran, and his “authorization of the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” which was already a toll-free waterway prior to his failed attack on Iran.
The US dollar’s retreat is due to the unwinding of safe-haven trades, but the losses may be limited because America still has an inflation problem. That means Fed Chair Warsh may find it difficult to win support to cut interest rates. Furthermore, there is a debate about the timing for when oil stocks normalize.
WTI oil prices gapped lower at the Asia open, falling from Friday’s close of 84.88 to 79.71 before ticking up to 80.55 in early NY trading.
Canada housing starts were 261.4k compared to 278.4k in April. Manufacturing Sales are rose 4.2% (previous 3.4%) and Wholesale sales rose 0.6%(previously1.9%)
US data includes Industrial production, Capacity utilization and NAHB Housing Market Index.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday technicals are bullish above 1.3940 but the rally has stalled below 1.4000. Momentum is fading, with the 4-hour RSI back at 47 from overbought and the MACD rolling into a bearish crossover, signalling the pair is looking to dredge the channel bottom rather than extend. A break below 1.3950 targets the rising channel support near 1.3905.
Longer term, USDCAD is bullish above 1.3810, the daily 200-period moving average, with the ascending channel from the May low still firmly intact. The daily MACD continues to confirm the bullish bias, while the daily RSI has cooled to 70 from last week’s extreme reading above 85. The channel bottom now runs through roughly 1.3900 and break targets the moving average support zone.
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.3940 and 1.3910. Resistance is at 1.3990 and 1.4020. Today’s expected range is 1.3940-1.4010.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Dumb and Dumber
Trump’s posted on Truth Social “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines.”
Global markets sold the greenback and oil and bought stocks as the risk aversion trades were unwound.
G-7 and Central Banks
The global temperature is expected to soar this week from all the hot air emanating from the G-7 meeting in Evian, France, and from central banks in Australia, Japan, the UK, Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland. The marquee event is Kevin Warsh’s first session as Chair of the Fed, Wednesday.
Prime Minister Carney is sure to raise the issue of American dominance of AI and why G-7 members should be concerned in the wake of the White House barring foreign nationals access to Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos models. Trump’s actions since being re-elected have shown the world that the American relationship is no longer that of a trusted friend, but that of an abusive partner.
Taking Stock
Asian equities traders reacted to Trump’s “peace with Iran” claim with gusto. Japan’s Topix soared 3.03%, the Australian ASX 200 rallied 1.25%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.50%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are higher. The French CAC 40 is up 1.25%, the German DAX is up 1.37%, and the UK FTSE 100 is unchanged. S&P 500 futures are up 1.21%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.448%, the DXY is 99.53, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,340.50.
EURUSD | Range 1.1571-1.1622
EURUSD extended last week’s gains with Trump’s tweet about peace with Iran giving the single currency another boost. The news helped lower the odds of another ECB rate hike in July, and markets will hear all about it from a slew of policymakers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, today. Gains were hampered by news that the Eurozone trade balance turned negative in April (actual €-1.0 billion, vs March €4.9 billion).
GBPUSD | Range 1.3405-1.3461
Sterling popped then dropped but remains in an intraday uptrend while prices are above 1.3400. The news of Trump’s peace declaration for the Middle East has downgraded Bank of England rate hike risks until November. Analysts also note that if Andy Burnham wins the by-election in Makerfield, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership will be challenged.
USDJPY | Range 159.74-160.23
USDJPY shrugged off post-Iran peace news weakness and is trading near its session high. The BoJ is expected to hike rates tomorrow, but such a move has been widely telegraphed and unlikely to provide any support. However, gains are capped by the ever-present threat of intervention.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7042-0.7088
Aussie rallied on the back of improved risk sentiment and prices and a decisive breach of the 0.7090 level targets further gains to 0.7150. The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged tomorrow, but the debate is whether or not it keeps its hawkish bias.
USDMXN | Range 17.1572-17.2210
USDMXN is consolidating Friday’s losses and remains near its session low. Improved risk sentiment following Trump’s declaration of peace with Iran is bumping into concerns around Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and the direction of US interest rates.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8088 vs exp. 6.7544 (prev. 6.8109)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 2.39% to 4,891.71
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
