USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3885-1.3954          

The US dollar is demonstrating that although it may have been down, it is far from out.  Better than expected US Retail Sales (Actual 0.2% m/m in January vs. forecast 0.1%, m/m) has driven USDJPY higher and EURUSD lower. USDCAD, which had been grinding higher all morning popped to 1.3954 from 1.3930, on the news.

US dollar upside was the theme overnight. Yesterday, markets were on the verge of a full-fledged panic and today, they have found a bit of back-bone.  In Asia, USDJPY rose and fell on comments from the Japanese Finance Minister and by the Bank of Japan’s Kuroda and on another decline in the Nikkei. Aussie and Kiwi bounced around in fairly narrow ranges.

European equities had an “up” day. German and Eurozone data was as expected with GDP growing 0.3% in Q4 (preliminary) EURUSD traders did not much care either way.  They sold EURUSD on the European open and then it traded in a narrow band for the entire session.  GBPUSD ignored soft data and rallied

This morning, the US dollar has been in demand and has posted gains across the G-10 spectrum.  It is not because all is right with the world; far from it.  It is mostly due to profit taking and position adjusting ahead of the long weekend in the US (Presidents Day) and in parts of Canada.

Oil prices are rallying.  WTI was $26.93 at one point during the European session and has traded as high as $28.14/b today.  It is currently sitting at$27.94/b.  Aside from long weekend profit taking, WTI has risen due to additional reports that Opec and non-Opec nations will address the oversupply situation.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are modestly bullish while trading above the 1.3880-90 area which represents both a minor uptrend line from the Tuesday low of 1.3785 and hourly support.  A break of this level could extend losses back to 1.3780. A move above 1.3950 would lead to another look at the 1.4010 area.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3880, 1.3830 and 1.3780.  Resistance is at 1.3950 and 1.4010

Forecast Range for the day 1.3980-1.3980

Chart USDCAD Daily