November 6, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4071, overnight range 1.4009-1.4082, close 1.4020

USDCAD rallied hard yesterday and even harder overnight as Wall Street melted down, tanking the major global equity indexes as well. The gains also shook global FX traders out of their complacency, as they had been lulled by a week’s worth of boring rangebound markets. USDCAD traders scrambled to buy dollars when stop-losses were triggered with the break above 1.4020.

USDCAD jumped to 1.4102 from 1.4064 on the heels of the US and Canadian employment reports. Canada’s was weak while the US data was scorching hot. Canada lost 4,700 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5%.

A Wall Street Journal headline is offering Canadians and the Carney government a ray of hope: “Democrats Are Hatching a Plan to Reverse Trump’s Canada Tariffs,” claiming support from some Republicans in states such as Michigan, Maine and Alaska. It isn’t that simple. Trump has a veto, and Democrats would need 290 votes in the House (they only have 253) and 67 votes in the Senate (they only have 54). But it certainly strengthens their hand in negotiations with Trump on any of his “pet projects.”

Canada’s Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne tabled his 2026 budget last evening. For FX traders, the budget is close to a non-event.

WTI traded in a $89.07-$92.50 range overnight. The market is hoping that a Democratic Congress leans on the White House to wind down the eight-month conflict with Iran, while Trump’s comments keep everyone guessing. Saudi Arabia cut its benchmark crude price by $2.0/b.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.4020, after prices broke out of last week’s 1.3930-1.4020 range and rallied from Thursday’s low of 1.3943 to 1.4082 overnight. The rally stalled  at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August to October rally at 1.4081, suggesting that a pause is likely. A break above 1.4090 targets the 4-hour upper Bollinger Band at 1.4140. A drop below the 100-day moving average at 1.4020 will shift the focus back to 1.3960

Longer term, the technical picture has improved. USDCAD has reclaimed the 100-day moving average at 1.4044 and taken out the October 28 high at 1.4069, ending the series of lower highs that defined the decline from 1.4300. The daily RSI has rebounded to 66 from oversold. Resistance sits at 1.4081-1.4093, where the Fibonacci level meets the daily upper Bollinger Band. A daily close above that zone would confirm a bottom and put 1.4140 in play. A failure there would leave USDCAD vulnerable to a return to the 1.3940 range floor.

For today, USDCAD support is 1.4040 and 1.4010. Resistance is 1.4110 and 1.4140.

Todays Range 1.4020-1.4120

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

Hot, Hot, Hot

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, blowing away the forecast of a 65,000 gain and more than tripling the average monthly increase of 48,000 recorded over the preceding 12 months. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while revisions added another 84,000 jobs to the August and September figures.

Not everything is rosy.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged, but the number of people working part-time for economic reasons jumped by 339,000 to 4.8 million. That suggests the labour market may not be quite as robust as the payroll headline implies.

Wall Street Meltdown

Wall Street’s AI darlings fell hard on Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.36% and the S&P 500 lost 4.36%, the worst day for both since April 2025. Chipmakers took the brunt, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 12.2%. Traders were spooked by the Democratic sweep and voters rejecting data centre projects. It raised doubts about the AI spending boom, which in the big picture is rather silly. AI and data centres are not going anywhere, anytime.

Taking Stock

Asian equity markets closed with losses, with Japan’s Topix plunging 5.90%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng lost 1.27% and Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.49%.

As of 5:45 am PT, European bourses are a sea of red. The German DAX is down 2.29%, the UK FTSE is down 1.99% and the French CAC-40 has fallen by 1.62%. S&P 500 futures are bucking the trend and trying to claw back yesterday’s losses, but with a gain of only 0.10%, they have a long road ahead. The US 10-year yield is 4.874%, the DXY is 102.19 and gold (XAUUSD) is at $4,050.18

EURUSD | Range 1.1145-1.1235

The euro sagged to the bottom of its overnight range, with traders ignoring a surprisingly sturdy German factory report. Industrial production rose 0.7% m/m in September against forecasts for no change, helped by a seasonal lift in autos. Eurozone retail sales were weaker than expected and didn’t help sentiment. EURUSD dropped to the session low after the US jobs data

GBPUSD | Range 1.3363-1.3468

GBPUSD is wallowing near its session low on the heels of the robust US employment numbers. Cable is not getting much, if any, support despite the Bank of England’s 25 bp hike to 4.00% on Thursday, because it was fully priced in. The ongoing drama in equity markets is being shrugged off by FX traders (for now).

USDJPY | Range 157.26-158.58

USDJPY is at the top of its overnight range on broad US dollar strength and risk aversion as Tokyo stock markets were hammered with chunky losses. Prices hit the peak after NFP.

AUDUSD | Range 0.6862-0.6943

AUDUSD is near its session lows due to global equity market weakness triggering broad-based US dollar demand. The RBA’s somewhat dovish rate hike on Tuesday is also weighing on the currency pair.

USDMXN | Range 18.6769-18.8145

USDMXN rallied after Banxico surprised markets and cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. The move was not unanimous, as two policymakers voted to leave the rate unchanged. Banxico justified the cut by claiming that economic slack would persist. Despite the move, the US dollar gains were rather modest and the currency pair remains inside its one-week range.

CHINA

PBoC Fix   6.7168 vs exp. 6.6762 (prev. 6.7156)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.44% to 4,054.28

Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView