April 30, 2025
USDCAD: open 1.3834, overnight range 1.3817-1.3847, close 1.3834
USDCAD wobbled but remained little changed after March GDP data was weaker than expected. GDP fell 0.2% m/m in February compared to expectations for 0, and the previous result of 0.4%. Stats Canada is expecting a better result when the March data is released (forecast 0.1% m/m) due to increased mining and oil activity. Even better Stats Canada says that “this advance estimate for March, information on real GDP by industry suggests that the economy expanded 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025.”
WTI oil prices fell to 59.20 from 63.70 at the start of the week, weighed down by fears of weaker demand caused by Trumps tariffs and Opec’s plans to boost production. Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 3.74 million increase in US crude inventories for last week.
USDCAD Technicals
The USDCAD intraday technicals are mixed inside a 1.3790-1.3880 range. A move below 1.3790 targets 1.3740 while a break above 1.3880 suggests a retest of the 1.4000 area.
Longer term, the USDCAD is trading with a bearish bias while prices are below 1.4010 and the move below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level supports further weakness to 1.3740. A decisive break above 1.3950 would negate the downward pressure.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3790 and 1.3740. Resistance is at 1.3890 and 1.3950
Today’s Range: 1.3790-1.3890
Chart: USDCAD daily.
FX at a Glance
Trump Remains Detached from Reality.
The President was in Michigan to tout the success of his economic policies which have been so successful Polymarket Probability predicts the odds of a US recession at 65.5%, Consumer Confidence is at a 14-year low, and instead of lowering the US deficit have sharply widened the US trade deficit.
But those issues are all Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s fault. Trump said “Inflation is basically down and interest rates came down despite the fact that I have a Fed person who’s not really doing a good job. You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed. You’re supposed to let him do his own thing — but I know much more than he does about interest rates.” Doh!.
US Data-Weak Jobs, Higher Prices
US ADP reported 62,000 new jobs which was well below the forecast of 108,000 and the previous result of 147,000. The March PCE price index showed prices rose 2.8% y/y which was higher than the 2.7% expected. The employment cost index 9ECI) was0.9% unchanged from last month.
Equity Traders are Optimistic
Trump’s tariff retreat on autos suggests that despite his bluff and bluster, tariff rates will be trimmed. Wall Street is starting to think so and the major indexes closed with gains. Traders are hoping that big tech company quarterly earnings data this week will give stocks a bigger lift.
Asian equity traders have the same hope and Australia’s ASX 200 rising 0.69% and Japan’s Topix up 0.63%.
European bourses gave back some of their earlier gains. The German Dax up 0.15% and the French CAC 40 index gained 0.22%. The UK FTSE is treading water and only up 0.10%. S&P 500 futures are down 1.30% as of 8:45 am EDT. Gold (XAUUSD) extended yesterday’s fall from 3314.02 to 3268.57 but has climbed to 3298.50 post US data.
EURUSD
NY Open: 1.1363, Overnight Range: 1.1355-1.1399
EURUSD largely ignored a barrage of data from across the eurozone and failed to benefit from higher-than-expected Q1 GDP which rose 0.4% q/q compared to the forecast of 0.2%. Traders are awaiting today’s US data.
GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.3361, Overnight Range: 1.3351-1.3415
GBPUSD extended yesterday’s losses after Trump dialed back his tariff rhetoric which helped to underpin the greenback. Prices are also undermined by slumping 10-year Treasury yields which have fallen to 4.165% today, from 4.24% yesterday.
USDJPY
NY Open: 143.11, Overnight Range: 142.15-143.15
USDJPY tracked higher and opened at the session high in NY. The impact of Trump’s tariffs was reflected in the Industrial Production data as March IP fell 1.1% compared to an increase of 2.3% in February. Large Retailer Sales rose 3.1% compared to 1.3% previously due to front-loading ahead of tariffs. The results suggest that the BoJ will leave rates unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting.
AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6397, Overnight Range: 0.6366-0.6418
AUDUSD popped to its session peak following hotter-than-expected inflation data. CPI rose 0.9% q/q compared to the forecast of 0.8% and 0.2% seen previously. However, the more important Core-CPI dipped to 2.9% y/y from 3.3% and puts inflation inside the RBA target range and that suggests a RBA rate cut is likely.
NZDUSD
NY Open: 0.5927, Overnight Range: 0.5902-0.5950
Kiwi is bouncing between two-week support in the 0.5920 area and a slight negative downtrend while below 0.5970. Prices were weighed down by a weak Business Confidence survey, which fell 9 points to 49 in April. ANZ Bank economists expect lower economic growth and additional rate cuts. On the plus side, prices were supported by hopes that Trump tariffs get rolled back, somewhat.
USDMXN
NY Open: 19.5239, Overnight Range: 19.5230-19.6018
USDMXN managed to squeeze out additional losses as traders bet that weak US consumer sentiment data combined with today’s US GDP and the recent auto tariff exemptions encourages the Trump administration to ease other tariffs. That sentiment changed after today’s US data boosted the US 10-year Treasury yield from 4.16% to 4.19%. The short-term technicals are bearish below 19.6000 while a sustained topside break targets 19.6500sustained topside break targets 19.6500
China Snapshot`
PBoC fix: 7.2014 vs exp. 7.2670 (Prev. 7.2029).
Shanghai Shenzhen 300 fell 0.12% to 3770.57
Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (forecast 49.9) Previous 51.3, NBS Manufacturing PMI 49 (forecast 49.9, previous 50.3). NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (forecast 50.7, previous 50.8)
SCMP reports “Miao Hua, a top general at China’s powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), has been removed from his position as a member of the country’s legislature, the National People’s Congress. Xi has repeatedly emphasised the importance of party loyalty among PLA leaders.” The same can be said about President Trump.
FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.
