June 9, 2025

USDCAD: open 1.3674, overnight range 1.3670-1.3700, close 1.3699

USDCAD drifted higher after the US and Canadian employment reports on Friday. Canada added 8,000 new jobs (forecast -15,000) but the results were discounted due to the impact from the election.  Even so, the results were weak which raised speculation that the Bank of Canada would resume cutting rates in the coming months.

USDCAD price action will be determined by China/US trade talk headlines. Trump is tweeting about how far advanced those talks are, implying a deal of some sort is imminent. However, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry declined to comment.

WTI oil prices consolidated Fridays gains in a 64.20-64.92 range. Prices are supported by hopes for some kind of US/China trade deal.

There are no US or Canadian economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technicals

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3750 supported by bearish momentum indicators and looking for a break below the 1.3630-50 area to extend losses to 1.3550. A break above 1.3750 targets 1.3860.

The medium term technicals are unchanged.  They are bearish below 1the 200 day moving average at 1.4026 and it is guarded by resistance in the 1.3740 and 1.3660 area. A decisive close below 1.3600 suggests further losses to 1.3450.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3710 and 1.3740
Today’s Range: 1.3630-1.3730

Chart: USDCAD daily

FX at a Glance

Burn, Baby, Burn

Trump has shifted his attention from “Drill Baby Drill,” to “Burn L.A. Burn.” Protestors attempting to disrupt immigration raids to remove illegal aliens are being met with overwhelming force. Trump ordered the California National Guard to deploy to L.A., claiming, “A once great American city, Los Angeles, has been invaded and occupied by illegal aliens and criminals. Now violent, insurrectionist mobs are swarming and attacking our federal agents.” California Governor Gavin Newsom called the move “a breach of our sovereignty” and demanded that Trump call off the dogs.

Talk, Baby, Talk
Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators are continuing tariff talks in London today, after Beijing’s decision to halt rare-earth mineral shipments forced Washington to the table. Global risk sentiment has improved as a result. China is pressing for a rollback of restrictions and bans on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment, while the U.S. is seeking renewed access to critical rare-earth supplies.

Equity Markets Idling
Improved risk sentiment helped boost Asian equity indexes with Japan’s Topix rising 0.56% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surging 1.63%. Australia’s ASX 200 was closed for a holiday.
European bourses are trading slightly negative as many Europeans are enjoying an extended long weekend. S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% while the US 10-year yield is 4.48%. Gold (XAUUSD) is 3322.41.

EURUSD
NY Open: 1.1426, Overnight Range: 1.1391-1.1439
EURUSD is trading at the top of its overnight range in holiday-thinned markets. Many European centers (Germany, France, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, etc.) are celebrating Whit Monday. Nevertheless, the lingering positive sentiment, post-ECB, and today’s comment by ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir underpinned prices. Mr. Kazimir said, “As things stand now, I think we’re nearly done with, if not already at the end of, the easing cycle.” $4.7 billion of 1.1400-25 option strikes are expiring at 10:00 am.

GBPUSD
NY Open: 1.3571, Overnight Range: 1.3524-1.3582
GBPUSD recouped all of Friday’s losses and is trading with a bullish bias. Improved risk sentiment from the China/U.S. trade talks and a positive-sounding Chinese press release touting UK and China trade prospects added to the positive GBPUSD sentiment.

USDJPY
NY Open: 144.12, Overnight Range: 143.98-144.95
USDJPY is opening where it started Friday’s NY session after giving back all its post-NFP gains. The retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield from Friday’s peak of 4.52% to 4.486% today, combined with improved risk sentiment and an improvement in Q1 GDP (actual 0.0% vs. -0.2% q/q), fueled USDJPY selling.

AUDUSD
NY Open: 0.6527, Overnight Range: 0.6494-0.6535
AUDUSD reversed Friday’s losses and rallied back to its 2025 peak due to hopes for a China/U.S. trade deal and broad-based U.S. dollar selling pressures. Trading was lighter than usual as Australian markets were closed for the King’s Birthday celebrations.

NZDUSD
NY Open: 0.6061, Overnight Range: 0.6014-0.6066
NZDUSD rallied on the back of a weak U.S. dollar vs. the majors and positive risk sentiment thanks to the U.S./China talks in London today. Prices got a bit of a boost after Manufacturing Sales data rose 2.4% in Q1 compared to 1.1% previously.

USDMXN
NY Open: 19.0700, Overnight Range: 19.0654-19.1227
USDMXN is trading at levels last seen in August 2024 and it remains in a downtrend channel that targets 18.8990. Friday’s U.S. NFP report suggested that the U.S. economy was resilient and may avoid a recession, which sparked USDJPY selling, while news of the China/U.S. trade talks in London improved overall risk sentiment. Mexican core CPI rose 0.3% in May previous 0.33%.

China

PBoC fix:  7.1855 vs exp. 7.2010 (Prev. 7.1845)

Shanghai Shenzhen 300 rose 0.29% to 3885.25

Chinese economic data underscores its economic woes. Trade data showed the surplus rising to $103.22 billion from $96.18 billion. Exports rose just 4.8% compared to 8.1% previously while Imports fell 3.4% compared to -0.2%.

CPI fell 0.1% y/y, unchanged from April, while PPI fell 3.3% y/y compared to 2.7% previously.

FX high, low, open (as of 6:00 am ET)

Sources: Yahoo Finance, Oanda, Investing.com, Bloomberg.

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