April 22, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3655 overnight range 1.3644-1.3668, close 1.3668

USDCAD traded sideways and uneventfully in a subdued overnight session. Global risk sentiment turned moderately positive after Trump backed off his threat of a massive bombing attack on Iran.

Canada’s Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette warned of possible turbulence in talks with the Americans. She asked Canadian businesses to reach out to their US customers to help them make a case for the economic relationship.

WTI oil rose from 87.67 to 91.41 before drifting back to 90.11 in NY. Trump’s extension of the ceasefire triggered the drop to the session low, while Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz drove prices higher.

It is a quiet day for data, with no top-tier releases from Canada or the US.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3670 and looking for a sustained move below 1.3630 to extend losses toward 1.3590. A break above 1.3670 risks a retest of the 1.3720 area.

The medium-term USDCAD outlook is bearish, with the downtrend from early April continuing to guide prices lower. Price has broken decisively below both the 100 and 200 SMMAs on the daily chart, which are clustered near 1.3808–1.3816, reinforcing that zone as a significant barrier to any recovery. The daily RSI is 20.25, suggesting the near-term downside is susceptible to a corrective bounce. ATR on the daily has contracted sharply to 0.00578, signalling that momentum is fading even as the trend remains intact.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3630 and 1.3590. Resistance is at 1.3670 and 1.3720. Today’s range: 1.3590–1.3680.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Ceasefire and Blockade Extended

Markets are ignoring Trump and laughing at him. Trump has proclaimed Iran’s obliteration and essentially declared victory in his war on Iran. Sunday he tweeted “take the DEAL,” the U.S. will “knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran… NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”

Yesterday he announced an “indefinite ceasefire” while extending the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports, which suggests the US is not victorious and Iran is not obliterated. Oil prices drifted higher and global equity indexes stayed close to home.

Meanwhile, there are reports that two or three ships transiting the Strait have come under fire, with one reporting being hit by a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG). Iran also reported that it had seized two ships in the Strait, the MSC Francesca and Epaminonda.

No Waves from Warsh Confirmation Hearing

Kevin Warsh faced scrutiny from Senators at his confirmation hearing and, at first blush, he did OK. He supported Fed independence and was opaque in his answers to monetary policy questions. Senator Thom Tillis said he would block Warsh’s confirmation until Trump’s DOJ investigation into Powell and the Fed is complete. That may not happen any time soon. Trump said he wants to see the DOJ investigation run its course.

Taking Stock

Asian equities closed with losses. Japan’s Topix fell 0.67%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 lost 1.18%.

As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses are mixed to flat. The French CAC 40 is down 0.17% while the UK FTSE 100 and the German DAX are flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.77%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.264%, the DXY is 98.44 and gold (XAUUSD) is 4755.01

EURUSD | Range: 1.1734-63

EURUSD traded with a modest bid after shrugging off yesterday’s weak German and Eurozone ZEW reports. A fresh bout of optimism, although modest, supported prices after Trump extended the Iran ceasefire. EURUSD short-term technicals are bullish above 1.1710.

GBPUSD | Range: 1.3498-1.3535

Cable traded choppily but ultimately with a small bid. UK inflation rose, but the gain was expected because of the surge in fuel prices. ING analysts said it is too soon to know anything about the scale or duration of the gains, which suggests the Bank of England will not react to the numbers. The short-term GBPUSD trend is bullish above 1.3490.

USDJPY | Range: 158.11-159.46

USDJPY is trading with a small bid due to higher US Treasury yields and firm oil prices, although the slight improvement in risk sentiment helped limit gains. Furthermore, USDJPY is approaching levels where the risk of BoJ intervention intensifies. The BoJ meets next week and is not expected to raise rates.

AUDUSD | Range: 0.7147-0.7177

AUDUSD traded sideways but with a bid in a fairly narrow range. Prices are supported by improved risk sentiment, higher commodity prices, and bullish technicals. AUDUSD is in an uptrend above 0.7050 and looking for a break above strong resistance in the 0.7210 area to target 0.7280.

USDMXN | Range: 17.1727-17.3360

USDMXN traded sideways but with a negative bias due to improved risk sentiment. The US trade negotiations appear to be moving along and at a faster pace than the US-Canadian trade talks.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8635 vs exp. 6.8233 (Prev. 6.8594)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.66% to 4,799.63

SCMP reports 2700 flights between Japan and China cancelled in March, due to ongoing feud between Beijing and Tokyo.

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview