April 23, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3668, overnight range 1.3660-1.3680, close 1.3672

USDCAD trickled higher on renewed, but mild risk aversion. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran has seized two ships in retaliation for the US seizing Iranian ships. There is plenty of talk about talks, but so far Iran and the US are not talking to each other. The result is that oil prices rose and the greenback firmed.

The Canada-US negotiations have not officially started but the Americans are setting the tone. US Trade Rep Jameson Greer told a House Ways and Means Committee “there are two countries that have retaliated economically against the United States in the past year: The People’s Republic of China and Canada. So that’s kind of the company they’re running in.” The comment was in response to a complaint by NY Rep Claudia Tenney who whined “Canada continues to block our dairy, our wine, and our produce while expecting free and open access to our markets.”

WTI oil rose sharply, from 92.33 to 97.19 before retreating to 94.10 in early NY. The lack of US and Iran negotiations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz fueled the rally. For a country whose navy and leadership has been “obliterated,” Iran is showing the incompetence of Pete Hegseth’s department of war.

Canada Industrial Product Prices rose 2.4% m/m (previously 0.6%) and Raw Materials Price soared 12% compared to 0.9%.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3690. A sustained move below 1.3640 would open the door toward 1.3600 while a break above 1.3690 risks a retest of 1.3750.

The medium-term USDCAD outlook is bearish, with the downtrend from late January continuing to press prices lower. Price has broken decisively below both the 100 and 200 SMMAs on the daily chart, which are clustered near 1.3806–1.3815, reinforcing that zone as a significant barrier to any recovery. The daily RSI is 29.87, sitting just above oversold territory and beginning to curl higher alongside the signal line at 30.38, suggesting the near-term downside is susceptible to a corrective bounce. ATR on the daily has contracted sharply to 0.00557, signalling that momentum is fading even as the trend remains intact.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3610. Resistance is at 1.3690 and 1.3730. Today’s range: 1.3630-1.3720.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Risk Sentiment Souring

Stock markets are retreating from record highs as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz provides a good excuse to book some profits. Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) first quarter earnings beat estimates, revenue increased but a 25% bump in planned capital expenditures spooked investors and the stock is down 3.32% as of 6:04 am. That move is weighing on other stocks.

US weekly jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 212,000, which underscores the resilience of the labour market. Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell 0.2% in March. Neither report is impacting markets.

Taking Stock

Asian equities closed negatively, led by a 0.95% plunge in the Hong Kong Hang Seng. Japan’s Topix fell 0.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.57%.

As of 5:40 am PT, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.57% while the UK FTSE 100 has lost 0.50% and the German DAX has dropped 0.18%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.21%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.302%, the DXY is 98.69 and gold (XAUUSD) is 4741.00

EURUSD | Range: 1.1685-1.1714

EURUSD is trading at the bottom of its overnight session range due to widespread US dollar demand and soft economic data. German PMI (Services, Manufacturing, Composite) were weaker than expected due to Trump’s war in Iran. Eurozone Services PMI contracted but it was offset by a Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 from 51.6.

GBPUSD | Range: 1.3479-1.3510

Cable traded negatively after rising oil prices offset positive sentiment from higher than expected PMI numbers. April Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.6 from 51 while Services PMI climbed to 52 from 50.25. The PMI gain is largely due to front-loading purchases ahead of feared price rises because of Trump’s war.

USDJPY | Range: 159.30-159.77

USDJPY is at the top of its range because the 2.17% jump in crude oil prices more than offset the rise in PMI to 54.9 from 51.6. Traders are leery of FX intervention, although as long as oil keeps rising, any BoJ USDJPY selling will find plenty of buyers.

AUDUSD | Range: 0.7137-0.7167

AUDUSD gave up earlier gains after better than expected PMI data because of renewed safe haven demand for US dollars due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

USDMXN | Range: 17.3297-17.4040

USDMXN rallied due to broad US dollar demand on another bout of risk aversion. Mexican inflation rose 0.11% (forecast 0.8%) in 1^st half month while Core rose 0.18% compared to the forecast 0.2%. Mexican retail sales rose 3.1%, below the forecast for a 4.1% rise.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8650 vs exp. 6.8294 (Prev. 6.8635)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.28% to 4,7786.33

Ministry of Finance is urging Chinese companies to seek refunds of US tariffs.

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview