April 24, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3689, overnight range 1.3678-1.3714, close 1.3701

USDCAD traded uneventfully due to caution ahead of the weekend and ahead of next week’s central bank meetings. The Fed meeting is the headliner while the BoC meeting should be uneventful.

USDCAD may be underpinned by the latest and somewhat hostile rhetoric from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Rep Jameson Greer. Lutnick says Canada “sucks” while Greer expressed frustration that Canada would not bow before US demands and compared Canada’s approach to China.

WTI oil is trading in a 95.56-97.83 range and is sitting at 97.06 in NY. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that Gulf oil production is down 57% since the start of the war. Trump is looking stupid. He campaigned on driving oil and interest rates lower and his ego has driven both sharply higher.

Canadian retail sales, ex-autos rose 0.5% m/m (forecast 0.8% m/m).

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3690 and are looking for a break below 1.3640 to extend losses toward 1.3605 — the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-April range. A topside break puts 1.3750 in play. It is also the 50% Fibo retracement.

The medium-term USDCAD outlook remains bearish, with the downtrend from the January high at 1.3996 continuing to press prices lower, guarded by the 100 and 200 moving averages clustered near 1.3806-1.3815 on the daily chart. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3805 sits directly on top of those moving averages, making 1.3805-1.3815 a confluence resistance wall.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3640 and 1.3605. Resistance is at 1.3690 and 1.3730. Today’s range: 1.3640-1.3730.

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Risk Aversion is Ripe

The US dollar index DXY is opening flat in NY but it has gained 0.62% this week. Yesterday’s US jobless claims and S&P Global PMI data supported the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged while today’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment indexes should reflect the negative impact of Trump’s war.

Traders will stay close to hope ahead of next week’s Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings. The Fed meeting will be interesting. It should be Powell’s last as Fed Chair, but it won’t be because the confirmation of Trump’s “sock-puppet” Kevin Warsh is being blocked.

Taking Stock

Asian equities closed on a mixed note. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.24%, while Japan’s Topix and Australia’s ASX 200 were flat.

As of 5:30 am PT, the French CAC 40 has dropped 0.38%, the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.24% and the German DAX is up 0.37%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.38%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.309%, the DXY is 98.61 and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,707.64.

EURUSD traded in a 1.1673-1.1696 range, uneventfully but defensively due to caution into the weekend and next week’s ECB meeting. Upside sentiment was tarnished after a weaker-than-expected German Ifo report that showed the index falling to the lowest level since the pandemic. Trump’s war with Iran had a lot to do with it because of the oil price spike.

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3453-1.3486 range and came under pressure after Trump threatened new tariffs unless the UK cancels its digital tax. Trump’s threat is just the latest evidence that there is no such thing as a trade deal with America. UK retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in March but that was due to higher gas prices.

USDJPY traded in a 159.59-159.84 range, continuing to grind higher supported by rising oil prices, higher US Treasury yields and because the BoJ will leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. Intervention fears are helping to slow gains.

AUDUSD traded in a 0.7115-0.7138 range, moving sideways with modest safe-haven US dollar demand competing with rising commodity prices for dominance. Bloomberg commodity index futures are up 4.53% this week.

USDMXN | Range: 17.4055-17.4552

USDMXN is stable as it consolidates recent losses in a 17.2000-17.4900 range. Yesterday’s inflation numbers were a tad stickier than Banxico would like, which will ensure a slower pace of rate cuts. Mexican retail sales rose 3.1% in March compared to 5.0% in February.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8674 vs exp. 6.8400 (Prev. 6.8650)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.35% to 4,769.37

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview