April 27, 2026

USDCAD open: 1.3609, overnight range 1.3606-1.3681, close 1.3670, close 1.3701

USDCAD drifted higher as global risk sentiment improved after Axios reported on Iran’s ceasefire initiative.

The Canadian government delivers its spring economic statement tomorrow, and it is to include lower budget deficit projections, which are meaningless as they never pan out. The Globe and Mail reports Carney will announce the creation of a Sovereign (Liberal?) Wealth Fund today.

The Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting is Wednesday, and it will be a non-event. Inflation may be rising but it is still within the BoC’s target.

WTI oil traded in a 95.00-97.10 range and peaked in Asia. Prices are underpinned by a lack of progress after Trump cancelled travel plans for the US negotiating team.

There are no US or Canadian economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3690 and are looking for a break below 1.3605, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-April range, which if broken targets 1.3497, the 100% retracement target. A topside break above 1.3690 puts 1.3745 in play.

The medium-term USDCAD outlook remains bearish, with the downtrend from the January high at 1.3996 intact and continuing to press prices lower. Recovery attempts have stalled well below the 100 and 200 SMAs, which have converged and are rolling over near 1.3804-1.3814 on the daily chart.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3805 sits directly on top of those moving averages, making 1.3804-1.3814 a formidable confluence resistance wall. That said, the daily RSI at 21 signals deeply oversold conditions. MACD remains negative with no crossover signal, keeping the path of least resistance pointed lower.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3605 and 1.3570. Resistance is at 1.3660 and 1.3690. Today’s range: 1.3580-1.3660

FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week

FX  open high low 6:00 am

Ball of Confusion

The Iran and US peace talks are a muddle of contradictions and confusion. One minute they are proceeding nicely, the next they have been cancelled. The Iranian negotiating team is reportedly not in sync with whoever is ruling Iran at the moment. Trump declared that sending representatives to Islamabad was a waste of time because nobody knows who is in charge.

Nevertheless, Axios reported that Iran had given the US a new proposal for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which starts with a new ceasefire and postponing nuclear talks. The news was seen as positive by markets.

Warsh Ready To Warm Fed Chair

Trump blinked. The Department of Justice announced it was closing its inquiry into Powell and the Fed. Rep. Thom Tillis said he would support Warsh’s nomination. For those keeping score: “Too-Late” Powell 1 vs. TACO Trump 0.

It is a busy week for central bankers. The Bank of Japan kicks things off tomorrow, followed by the Bank of Canada and FOMC on Wednesday, and the ECB and Bank of England.

Taking Stock

Asian equities finished the session with losses except Japan’s Topix, which rose 0.50%. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.23% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.20%.

As of 5:40 am PT, the German DAX is up 0.72%, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.35%, and the UK FTSE 100 is flat as are S&P 500 futures. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.318%, the DXY is 98.25, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,697.70.

EURUSD | Range: 1.1697-1.1755

EURUSD dropped in Asia then rebounded following the Axios report of Iran’s ceasefire proposals. Traders are cautious ahead of central bank risk, which includes the Fed on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday. German consumers are not feeling very confident. The GfK consumer climate index fell to -33.3 from -28.1.

GBPUSD | Range: 1.3505-1.3576

Cable mirrored EURUSD moves, dropping in Asia then climbing into the New York open. King Charles is meeting King Trump in Washington. UK officials are hoping he can stroke Trump’s ego enough to smooth over the tensions caused by the UK not supporting Trump’s war with Iran. GBPUSD is getting a lift from improved risk sentiment from Iran and US developments, along with the news that Warsh’s confirmation can go ahead. Gains may be slowed by ongoing political issues that may end Prime Minister Starmer’s tenure.

USDJPY | Range: 159.10-159.60

USDJPY popped then dropped in a narrow band but remains underpinned by higher oil prices. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate of 0.75% unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting while signalling a hawkish hold. The BoJ is navigating risks from slowing economic growth and rising inflation from high oil prices.

AUDUSD | Range: 0.7131-0.7196

AUDUSD rallied on the back of positive risk sentiment, rising commodity prices, and expectations for another RBA rate hike in May.

USDMXN | Range: 17.3396-17.4177

USDMXN drifted lower and remains on the defensive due to Fed/Banxico interest rate differentials. Both central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged in the near term. US-Mexico trade negotiations are a wild card.

China

USDCNY Fix:  6.8579 (Prev. 6.8674)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4,770.95

PBoC announced it would cut the Reserve Requirement Ration (RRR) by 1.0% to 8%, as of May 15.  A Goldman Sachs analyst said the move was designed to slow the appreciation of they yuan.

Moody’s raised China’s government debt to stable from negative and left its A1 rating unchanged.

China blocks Meta’s purchase of AI firm Manus

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview