April 28, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.3655, overnight range 1.3613-1.3680, close 1.3628
USDCAD recouped yesterday’s losses as Trump mulls over (unenthusiastically) Iran’s three-stage peace agreement proposal and direction will continue to be driven by headlines. Traders are also biding their time until tomorrow’s BoC and FOMC meetings. It is close to month end and the sharp rise in the S&P 500 (8.6% as of today) suggests that USDCAD may see fresh selling pressure.
The government releases its Spring Economic Update today which should be a non-event for markets. Yesterday Prime Minister Carney announced the creation of a Sovereign Wealth Fund. Canadians will be able to invest in it, earn dividends while having limited to no downside. Canada Savings Bonds II?
The Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting is Wednesday, and it will be a non-event. Inflation may be rising but it is still within the BoC’s target.
WTI oil is 3.5% higher today and traded in a 96.26-100.10 range overnight. The rally is a direct reaction to fears that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened anytime soon because the US is unhappy with Iran’s latest peace proposal.
Case Shiller Home Prices and Consumer Confidence reports are on tap today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3630 and looking for a break above 1.3690 to extend gains to 1.3750. A move below 1.3630 targets 1.3605 then 1.3570.
The short-term USDCAD technicals are bearish as the downtrend from April 6, at 1.3950, continues to guide prices lower while below 1.3690. A topside break will extend gains to 1.3800 where resistance from the 100 and 200 SMAs reside.
For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3620 and 1.3580. Resistance is at 1.3690 and 1.3730. Today’s range: 1.3590-1.3690.
FX Heat Map (6:00 am) one week
FX open high low 6:00 am
Lunch Bag Letdown
Yesterday’s optimism following news that Iran had submitted a three-stage peace plan gave way to pessimism overnight after CNN reported that Trump was not satisfied.
Trump tore up Iran’s nuclear deal and now finds himself in a war where the price of peace is another nuclear deal. In February, the Strait of Hormuz went from a wide-open, free global energy freeway to a partially closed backroad, with tolls. Two months ago, WTI oil was trading around $63.00 with a negative bias. Thanks to Trump it is flirting with $100.00/b and is in an uptrend. He is a pure agent of anarchy. No plan, no endgame, just watching the world burn.
As an aside, the UN (in what could be a deliberate one-fingered salute to Trump) named Iran as one of many vice presidents for its month-long nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) talks. The Chair of the Committee, Vietnam Ambassador Do Hung Viet, said a group of nations were involved in Iran’s selection.
Taking Stock
Asian equities finished the session with losses except Japan’s Topix, which rose 0.99%. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.64% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.95%.
As of 5:30 am PT, the UK FTSE 100 has given up earlier gains and is flat. The French CAC 40 has lost 0.40%, and the German DAX is down 0.47%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.77%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.375%, the DXY is 98.81, and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,583.06
EURUSD | Range: 1.1677-1.1727
EURUSD gave up yesterday’s gains after optimism from Iran’s peace proposal faded and selling pressures were exacerbated by month-end portfolio rebalancing flows. Traders also took note of the ECB’s latest economic bulletin which warned that stagflation pressures had increased. EURUSD downside may be limited ahead of a hawkish-sounding ECB message at Thursday’s meeting.
GBPUSD | Range: 1.3463-1.3543
GBPUSD is under pressure due to unhappiness around US and Iran peace talks and month-end selling pressures. However, UK politics is adding another layer of woe as Prime Minister Starmer’s job could be in jeopardy over his role in appointing Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador.
USDJPY | Range: 155.96-159.79
USDJPY dropped then popped in the wake of the Bank of Japan announcement that it would leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75%. It is considered a hawkish hold as three board members dissented and wanted to hike rates to 1.0%. The post-decision rally was mainly due to the jump in oil prices overnight.
AUDUSD | Range: 0.7151-0.7195
AUDUSD traded defensively but the downside remained supported by steady to firm commodity prices and hawkish expectations for the RBA at its May 5 meeting.
USDMXN | Range: 17.3686-17.4688
USDMXN firmed on the back of broad US dollar demand and higher oil prices. Banxico is expected to leave its key rate unchanged at 6.75% at its May 6 meeting because inflation still remains above target.
China
USDCNY Fix: 6.8599 (Prev. 6.8579)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.27% to 4,758.21
Reuters quotes “sources” saying PBoC asks commercial banks to ensure that outstanding loan balances post month over month growth in April to provide some mild, targeted economic stimulus.
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
