Agility Forex Daily
USDCAD open: 1.4196, overnight range 1.4160-1.4205, close 1.4186
USDCAD retreated on broad US dollar weakness after this week’s various US employment reports suggested that the jobs market and by default the economy, was rather resilient. Prices have inched higher into the UK lunch hour, but the move is largely noise
The White House has not given up in its quest to control the Fed. Bloomberg reports that authorities are actively exploring ways to remove members of the Fed’s Board of Governors to clear the way for more of the president’s own picks, with Cook and former Chair Jerome Powell as targets.
Fed chair Kevin Warsh is still in his “honeymoon” phase. Trump claims that the FOMC is a “little bit hostile” and then said that growth can be good for inflation, not just bad.
WTI oil prices traded softer in a 68.17-69.26 range. Citi analysts are predicting lower prices because flows are normalizing which seems like a rather obvious outcome.
There are no Canadian economic reports today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below the 1.4200-05 area and setting the stage for a deeper correction. Prices are consolidating just below the middle of the 4-hour 1.4141-1.4235 Bollinger band, with the 4-hour RSI and the MACD histogram marginally negative, confirming that upside momentum has faded. A decisive break below 1.4140 targets 1.4100.
The longer-term outlook remains bullish above 1.4100, where the ascending trendline from the May low guards the broader uptrend, with the 200-day moving average rising at 1.3845. However, prices have broken below the steeper June uptrend line near 1.4185, and the daily RSI easing from extreme overbought levels alongside a marginally negative daily MACD histogram warns the correction has room to run. A close below 1.4100 unlocks a move to 1.4050, ahead of 1.3990. A recovery above 1.4258 negates the bearish setup and puts 1.4400 back in play.
For today: USDCAD support is at 1.4140 and 1.4100. Resistance is at 1.4205 and 1.4235. Today’s expected range is 1.4120-1.4210.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
Fed Hike Pushed Back
Yesterday’s US employment numbers (NFP actual 57,000), the downward revision to May’s data (-43,000 to 129,000), combined with soft but steady weekly jobless claims, drove the US dollar lower and downgraded near term rate hike risks. The sentiment prevailed overnight but to a lesser extent.
US markets are closed today for July 4 celebrations. And Trump is celebrating the most. He is the epitome of an insider trader. He executed a reportedly 21,000 trades in 2025, en route to enriching himself to the tune of a couple of billion dollars. The late Ivan Boesky, once crowned the King of Insider Trading for making a mere $50 million, is rolling in his grave. He paid a $100 million fine and went to jail for it. Trump is immune from prosecution.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed with gains led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rise of 1.28%. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.37% and Japan’s Topix finished up 1.24%.
As of 5:30 am PT, the German Dax is up 0.52%, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.11% and the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.12%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.28%, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.48%, the DXY is 100.78 and gold (XAUUSD) is 4,175.91.
EURUSD | Range 1.1420-1.1463
EURUSD held on to yesterday’s gains achieved after US data pushed rate hikes further downstream. Prices were supported by Eurozone Composite (actual 50 vs May 48.5) and Services PMI (actual 49.4 vs May 47.7) numbers that suggested the economy was stabilizing.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3335-1.3381
GBPUSD traded sideways but gains may stall in the 1.3410 area. Prime Minister-to-be, Andy Burnham, is making sure of that by discussing raising taxes to fund more spending. Sterling bulls didn’t get any help from UK Services PMI, which fell to 48.8 in June, from 49.3 in May. S&P Global Market Economics Director Tim Moore said: “June data confirmed a clear loss of momentum for the UK economy during the second quarter of 2026, following a positive start to the year.”
USDJPY | Range 160.49-161.51
USDJPY eased following the US data and on concerns that the BoJ may take advantage of the thinner than usual liquidity due to the US holiday to intervene. So far, they haven’t because they may want to be sneaky and intervening today is a rather obvious move.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6911-0.6950
Aussie held on to yesterday’s gains and then got some additional support after the latest services numbers from China.
USDMXN | Range 17.4181-17.4992
USDMXN is trading near yesterday’s low weighed down by the lowered odds of a US rate hike in the near future. The ongoing US trade talks may limit losses.
CHINA
- PBoC Fix: 6.8047 vs exp. 6.7808 (prev. 6.8088
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 2.96% to 4,812.30
Chinese RatingDog June Services PMI 54.1 (forecast 53.6 previous 54.4). Composite PMI 53.6 (Prev. 54.0)
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics Tradingview
