September 22, 2026
USDCAD open: 1.4035, overnight range 1.4025-1.4050, last 1.4040
USDCAD is grinding higher, powered by a volatile mix of widening CAD/US interest differentials that favour the greenback, softer crude prices and cross-border trade tensions.
The latest comments from Fed officials served to move the 10-year CAD/US spread to 112.4 today from 110.6 yesterday, while the 2-year spread widened to -148.4 from 142.1.
Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Canada has gone through “stages of grief” over the death of open trade with the United States,” He said that trade uncertainty is a drag on growth, the Middle East conflict is a lift to inflation, and the Bank is stuck triangulating between the two rather than leaning clearly toward a hike or a cut.
Crude is sliding again. WTI is near its session low of $89.18 after dropping from $93.82 on hopes that a diplomatic solution to the Iran/US war can get oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has said he is open to a meeting with Iran’s President Pezeshkian.
There are no major Canadian or US economic reports on the calendar.
USDCAD Technicals
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish above 1.3970. The break above 1.3930 last week and the subsequent move above 1.3970 suggest USDCAD has entered into a new short-term 1.3950-1.4150 trading range. However, the short term-momentum indicators suggest the latest move is overdone. So far, 1.4050 has capped gains but a move above that level puts 1.4090 in play. A drop below 1.4020 targets 1.3970.
Longer term, the 1.3760-1.4050 range that has contained price action since the middle of July is being tested from the top, and today’s failed attempt above 1.4050 keeps that range intact for now. A sustained close above 1.4050 keeps 1.4150 in view, and then 1.4250, the July high.
For today, support is 1.4010 and 1.3970. Resistance is 1.4050 and 1.4090.
Today’s range 1.3990-1.4080.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am
It’s A-Musing
Meta shares surged more than 11% on Monday after strong early adoption numbers for its Muse AI agent and AMD joining the trillion-dollar club, both of which contributed to improved risk sentiment overnight.
The US dollar remained underpinned after a couple of Fed officials, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St Lousi Fed President Alberto Musalem said more rate hikes were needed in order to drive inflation to 2.0%.
Market attention will be on headlines from Trump’s UN speech and his meetings with various world leaders from the sidelines of the UN General Assembly today.
Taking Stock
Asia equity indexes closed uneventfully. Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.30%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng climbed 0.18% and Japan’s Topix finished flat.
As of 5:35 am PT, the French CAC-40 is up 0.48%, the German Dax has gained 0.51% and the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.11%. S&P 500 futures are flat, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.931%, the DXY is 100.38 and gold is $4,339.35.
EURUSD | Range 1.1434-1.1479
EURUSD traded choppily in Europe dropping to the session low and then recouping most of the losses as NY opened. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned that a second wave of energy price increases will push inflation higher before it eases back toward target from mid-2027. Traders ignored his comments with attention diverted to the UN activities.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3327-1.3388
Sterling bounced erratically but remained in its well-defined band with gains capped below resistance in the 1.3400 area. PM Burnham is expected to talk about Trump’s war in Iran and more support for Ukraine.
USDJPY | Range 156.83-157.78
USDJPY rallied then retreated on the back of falling oil prices and lower US Treasury yields. Volumes are lighter than usual as Japanese markets remain closed. Prices remain supported because traders believe that the BoJ is reluctant to raise rates again any time soon.
AUDUSD | Range 0.7092-0.7126
AUDUSD continued to consolidate its recent losses. RBA Governor Bullock reiterated that supply shocks from the US/Iran war and AI data centers are adding to inflation pressures. Her comments reinforce the view that the RBA will raise rates to 4.60% on September 29.
USDMXN | Range 17.2094-17.2914
USDMXN rallied due to broad-based US dollar demand stemming from the latest hawkish comments by Fed officials. Mexican Retail Sales rose 1.8% y/y which was weaker than the forecast of 2.1% and well below the 2.9% seen in June. Traders are looking ahead to Thursday’s Banxico meeting when a “hawkish” hold is expected.
- PBoC Fix 6.7459 vs Exp. 6.6989 (prev. 6.7487)
- Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.11% to 4,544.59
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Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview
