October 14, 2026
USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4215, range since Friday, 1.4197-1.4281, close 1.4216
USDCAD choked on support in the 1.4195-1.4210 area and rallied from 1.4212 to 1.4281 in the wake of the hotter-than-expected US September inflation numbers. Core CPI rises 0.3% m/m (forecast 0.2%) and 2.6% y/y compared to 2.4% in August.
WTI traded with a bid in a $94.00-$95.98 range on news that Saudi Aramco’s head office was hit by a missile and a container ship struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The global diesel shortage is expected to last well into 2027 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) as the Trump administration continues its efforts to trash the American and global economy.
There is no Canadian data of note today.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals had turned bearish while trading below 1.4230 ,then promptly flipped to bullish with the post-CPI rally and looking for another test of the recent 1.4295 area double top.. A move above 1.4310 targets 1.4260.
Longer term, USDCAD remains locked in a 1.4195-1.4295 band with a break either side suggesting either 1.4100 or 1.4400,
For today, support is 1.4210 and 1.4190. Resistance is 1.4295 and 1.4310. Today’s range 1.4210-1.4290.
FX Heat Map
FX open high low 6:00 am ET
Counting Down to CPI
Headline US CPI rose more than expected. Headline CPI climbed 3.7% y/y while Core CPI rose 2.6%. the initial reaction drove the US dollar higher and boosted the 10-year Treasury yield by 10 bps. Gold prices dropped and S&P futures flipped to negative from positive.
Yesterday, NY Fed President John Williams said he expects to tighten just once more as disinflationary forces are still in play and there is no sign that the labour market is feeding price pressures, with broad price increases only in AI-related areas and energy.
He was not alone in sounding measured yet resolute. Boston Fed President Susan Collins backed raising rates a bit further by year-end, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin argued that 2% inflation is not a unicorn. Today’s data may be enough to change their minds although the odds for rates to remain unchanged in October barely changed.
Investors Unimpressed
Q3 earnings season kicked off with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and other banks reporting Q3 results. Goldman Sachs posted a blow-out quarter, Citigroup beat expectations and JPM disappointed. Investors reacted to somewhat cautious forward guidance and sold bank stocks. JPM’s Jamie Dimon warned that sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are headwinds.
Taking Stock
Asian equities closed with losses. The Australian ASX 200 dropped 0.64%, Japan’s Topix lost 0.34% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.13%.
As of 5:30 am PT, European bourses have shed some earlier gains but remain in the green. The German DAX is up 0.41%, the French CAC-40 has risen 0.58 % while the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.12%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.30%, the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.312% from 5.20% pre-CPI and gold (XAUUSD) is $4,104.98..
EURUSD | Range 1.1132-1.1212
EURUSD ticked higher in Asia then dropped like a rock after the US inflation while French fiscal worries exacerbate the losses. ECB President Christine Lagarde rejected the idea of intervening to support French bonds, saying the solution is France’s problem.
GBPUSD | Range 1.3205-1.3276
Cable climbed steadily in Asia then gave back the gains on the heels of the hotter than expected American CPI numbers. The GBPUSD boost after the IMF upgraded the United Kingdom’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.3% (up from its previous 1.0% estimate) has faded.
USDJPY | Range 158.11-158.85
USDJPY drifted higher then popped after the US data, as traders reassessed their outlooks for Japanese interest rates, especially after rumours that the BoJ is reluctant to entertain back-to-back rate hikes. Steady to higher oil prices are also underpinning prices.
AUDUSD | Range 0.6974-0.7014
AUDUSD gave back its overnight gains that were fuelled by China’s robust trade data after the hot US inflation reading but remained inside its overnight range. AUDUSD may struggle to sustain rallies afterr the IMF projected Australia to face one of the worst unemployment increases in the developed world and a 2026 inflation forecast of 3.9%.
USDMXN | Range 18.3550-18.5481
USDMXN spiked in the aftermath of the American inflation data and remains underpinned after the Banxico minutes revealed officials saw plenty of room to continue easing interest rates.
CHINA
PBoC Fix: 6.7249 vs exp. 6.69220 (previous 6.7298)
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.29% to 4,275.68 (Tuesday) Monday-CSI 300 fell 0.68% to 4287.98.
September exports rose 36.3% y/y vs 25.5% expected, with imports up 31% against 24.5% expected.
The trade surplus swelled to $133.53 billion (forecast $118.1 billion) CPI rose 0.9% y/y (forecast 1%). September PPI rose 5.0% (forecast 4.5%, previous 3.8%).
Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics, Tradingview
