October 27, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4021, overnight range 1.4009-1.4028, close 1.4011

USDCAD drifted higher due to broad-based US dollar strength ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, and improved risk sentiment from the anthropic (Claude) IPO news. The currency pair is also supported by market expectations that the Bank of Canada will hike rates tomorrow, having seemingly abandoned data dependence in favour of an intuition-based policy approach.

WTI traded in a $100.62-$102.82 overnight as risk sentiment remains elevated due to ongoing Middle East strife. The Saudi’s keep intercepting Houthi missiles and drones. Prices eased from the peak on reports of Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani delegates travelling to Tehran for more ceasefire talks.

The Canadian economic calendar is empty

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are neutral, with prices stuck in a 1.3985-1.4055 range. Yesterday’s push above the 100-day moving average to 1.4056 was quickly rejected. A decisive break above 1.4060 targets 1.4090 and 1.4110, while a drop below 1.3985 will shift the focus to 1.3950.

Longer term, yesterday’s failure at the 100-day moving average at 1.4046 keeps the bears in control, although support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January to October rally at 1.3992  is holding for now. Momentum indicators remain deeply oversold, which should limit the downside.

The key level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3946, which coincides with the mid-September breakout point. A daily close below it would turn the pullback into a reversal and put the 200-day moving average at 1.3885 in play.

For today, USDCAD support is 1.3980 and 1.3950. Resistance is 1.4060 and 1.4090.

Today’s Range 1.3990-1.4050

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

Second-tier Data Dump

There is plenty of US data on tap today, but none of it should have much, if any, impact on FX markets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed monetary policy announcement.

US Durable Goods Orders rose a more-than -expected 1.8% y/y (forecast, 0.6%, August 0.1%) while Durable Goods Orders, ex-Defense rose 2.2%. The results were ignored.

Still to come: Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, new home sales and regional manufacturing surveys.

Anthropic’s IPO improved global risk sentiment, while Meta’s planned $95-$98 billion stock sale reminded investors of the cost of AI infrastructure. So does Microsoft’s plan to offer buyouts to 60,000 employees. Who needs headcount when AI can do the work?

Taking Stock

In Asia, markets closed with a mixed tone. Japan’s Topix closed with a gain of 0.61%, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.46%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.73%.

As of 7:05 am, the CAC 40 is up 0.36%, the German DAX has gained 0.26%, while the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.70%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.23%, the US 10-year yield is 4.967%, the DXY is 102.19 and gold (XAUUSD) is at $4,012.74.

EURUSD | Range 1.1136-1.1179

EURUSD is sliding for a fourth straight session, now probing the overnight low. A firmer dollar and caution ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and Thursday’s ECB meetings have put a damper on trading. Expectations for a hawkish Fed outcome and a tame ECB result are weighing on the single currency.

GBPUSD | Range 1.3307-1.3350

Cable is weighed down by broad-based US dollar strength and caution ahead of Wednesday’s UK Budget and the OBR forecasts that come with it, in addition to FOMC angst. The BRC Shop Price Index rose 2.1% (forecast 1.6%, September 1.4%), but the news was ignored.

USDJPY | Range 157.42-157.88

USDJPY is trading near its session peak. The greenback’s gains are driven by US dollar demand ahead of the FOMC meeting and Friday’s BoJ meeting, where rates are expected to be left unchanged. Elevated oil prices are also supporting USDJPY. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned the government stands “ready to take decisive action” in the currency market if necessary. Traders have heard it before, and her remarks were ignored.

AUDUSD | Range 0.7010-0.7038

The Aussie is steady in a 0.7000-0.7025 range and continues to benefit from recent hawkish comments by RBA officials. Comments about inflation fears keep a November rate hike on the table. In New Zealand, the RBNZ is expected to hike rates to 3.00% from 2.75% tomorrow.

USDMXN | Range 18.5441-18.6359

USDMXN is consolidating yesterday’s losses due to broad US dollar demand. However, last week’s mid-month inflation reading was a tad hotter than expected, which sparked some chatter that Banxico may adopt a more restrictive outlook.

CHINA

PBoC Fix   6.7171 vs exp. 6.6731 (prev. 6.7162)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 1.32% to 4,049.55

Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView