Agility Forex Daily

November 10, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4126, overnight range 1.4105-1.4141, close 1.4120

USDCAD broke through its overnight peak and is trading in the 1.4180 area in the wake of a robust inflation report.  The reaction is not a surprise as the data came on the heels of this morning’s comment by Fed Governor Christopher Waller who said he would advocate for a 50 bp rate hike at the December meeting, if today’s inflation numbers are hotter than expected.

China’s yuan makes a Canadian debut. China launched a 4-billion yuan-denominated green sovereign bond (CAD $844.7) sale in Canada, split between three- and five-year maturities, and priced at yields of 1.40% and 1.50%, respectively. It was nearly 15 times over-subscribed and it is China’s first offshore yuan sovereign issuance outside Hong Kong, Macau and London.

WTI is trading in a $83.89-$86.92 range as traders began unwinding the war premium from both US vs Iran and Russia vs Ukraine wars. Global risk sentiment improved after Trump played down the odds of fresh strikes on Iran and talks brokered via Qatar and Pakistan picked up steam. Furthermore, trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are raising hopes for an end to that conflict, although European leaders fear what Trump will give to Putin, to secure a ceasefire.

There are no Canadian economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.4105 and the decisive break above 1.4150 targets 1.4250. A move below 1.4105 targets 1.4050.

Longer term, USDCAD has now posted two straight daily closes above the 100-day moving average at 1.4043, keeping the recovery from the 1.3929 low intact. The daily RSI is approaching overbought, and the daily Bollinger Bands are widening, with the upper band at 1.4220. A daily close above 1.4150 would put 1.4220 in play, followed by the October high near 1.4300. A daily close below the 100-day moving average would undermine the recovery.

For today, USDCAD support is 1.4105 and 1.4080. Resistance is 1.4180 and 1.4220

Todays Range 1.4140-1.4220

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

I’ll See Your 25 and Raise You 50

Fed Governor Christopher Waller did not bother waiting for the inflation numbers before showing his hand. Speaking early this morning, he said further tightening will be needed and that he backs at least a quarter-point hike in December, adding that a hot October print could make a half-point move worth considering.

October CPI rose 0.4% m/m (forecast 0.3%) and Core CPI rose 0.3% (forecast 0.2%) which suggests a 50 bp rate hike will be discussed at the next FOMC meeting.  The news boosted the greenback, sank S&P 500 futures and lifted Treasury yields

Taking Stock

Asia equity markets followed Wall Street’s lead and rose sharply. Japan’s Topix closed 1.98% higher, Australia’s ASX 200 added 1.10% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.44%.

5:45 am PT, European bourses are in positive territory. The German DAX has gained 1.14%, the French CAC 40 has risen 1.09% and the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.39%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.38%, while the DXY is 102.00, the US 10-year yield is 4.945% and gold (XAUUSD) is $4,0.61.53.

EURUSD | Range 1.1179-1.1252

EURUSD retreated from the peak seen in Europe and it made a new session low in NY following the US inflation data. Traders are also keeping alert for fresh developments from the trilateral Russia, US and Ukraine talks.

GBPUSD | Range 1.3346-1.3459

GBPUSD continued to drift inside its overnight range after the US CPI numbers. The currency pair is getting a bit of support from comments by BoE policymaker Clare Lombardelli today.  She said she would not rule out another rate hike in December, and that comment, along with the slide in oil prices, is giving sterling a bit of support.

USDJPY | Range 157.86-158.49

USDJPY is popped through the top of its overnight band following today’s US inflation numbers and the  hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller. The Bank of Japan summary of opinions, showing several members signalling a strong chance of a December rate hike, did little for the currency. USDJPY is also getting a lift as safe-haven trades get unwound.

AUDUSD | Range 0.6871-0.6930

AUDUSD is trading traded defensively due to the US data,Waller’s comments and soft domestic economic data. NAB business conditions fell to -2, the lowest since August 2020, and confidence slipped to -15. The results reinforce the prospect that the RBA leaves rates unchanged in December.

USDMXN | Range 18.4305-18.6831

USDMXN  reversed its overnight decline and rallied after the US inflation data warned that the MXN/US yield spread could narrow sharply if Wallers 50 rate hike comment comes true.  

CHINA

PBoC Fix   6.7167 vs exp. 6.6655 (prev. 6.7188)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4,059.11

The PBoC announced that the PBOC’s new daily overnight reverse repo operations that ended the first full week November 7, went smoothly signal as it moves to the overnight rate as its primary monetary policy anchor.

China’s economic data offered a mixed picture. Foreign trade remained robust, with goods trade up 20% year-over-year in the first ten months of 2026 to 44.81 trillion yuan.

Exports climbed 17.6%, while imports surged 23.6%.

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Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView