November 11, 2026

USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.4219, overnight range 1.4179-1.4247, close 1.4190

It is Remembrance Day in Canada and Veterans Day in the US. That means Canadian banks and bond markets are closed but the TSX is open. In the US, the Federal Reserve is closed as are the bond markets, but it’s business as usual for stock markets.

USDCAD is still riding Tuesday’s US inflation wave and it passed the overnight peak of 1.4222, extending the rally to 1.4247 in early NY trading. Fed’s speakers were mostly hawkish following the hotter-than expected US inflation numbers.

The Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations did not offer anything new but still refocused markets on policymakers’ hawkish view. Governing Council is increasingly concerned that persistently high energy prices would feed into broader inflation, even though underlying inflation remains close to its 2% target.

Meanwhile, yesterday’s Q3 Bank of Canada Market Participants Survey showed that participants expect an economy with considerable slack, modest growth and rising recession risks.

WTI has traded 85.83-87.39. Prices are steady after two days of losses as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and a tanker hit near Hormuz contrast with reports from Qatar suggesting there is a 2-week agreement between US and Iran to continue talks.

There are no US or Canadian economic reports of note today.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.4180 which is being guarded by minor support at 1.4220.  A break above 1.4240 targets 1.4280 but that may not happen today as the momentum indicators suggest that USDCAD is extremely overbought.  A move below 1.4180 will shift the focus back to 1.4120.

Longer term, USDCAD has climbed roughly 290 pips from the November 4 low and has now closed above the 100-day moving average at 1.4044 for three straight sessions. Prices are also holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2023 to February 2025 rally at 1.4080. The daily RSI is overbought at 83, and the daily upper 3-STD Bollinger Band sits at 1.4328.

Note: Over the past 12 months, USDCAD has traded between a low of 1.3450 in January and a high of 1.4300 in October. At 1.4220 this morning, the loonie is sitting near the weak end of that range, about 80 pips below the ceiling. The pair has run into trouble near the top twice this year, in late June and again in October, and both times it turned lower

For today, USDCAD support is 1.4180 and 1.4150. Resistance is 1.4250 and 1.4290.

Today’s Range 1.4190-1.4280

FX Heat Map

FX open high low 6:00 am

Greenback Has a Bid

The US dollar is extending its overnight gains in thin North American markets. The US dollar index climbed from 101.49 to 102.50 then extended the rally to 102.67 in early NY trading. The resilience of the US economy as evidenced by recent data like nonfarm payrolls and retail sales, the overtly hawkish tone from a flock of Fed officials and the rise in 10-year Treasury yields above 5.00% are fueling the gains. Thinner than usual FX markets may exacerbate currency moves.  

Taking Stock

Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan’s Topix rising 0.82%, Australia’s ASX 200 gaining 0.27%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.98%.

As of 5:35 am PT, European bourses are higher. The German DAX is up 0.79%, the UK FTSE 100 has climbed 0.43% and the French CAC-40 has gained 0.30%. S&P 500 futures have rallied 0.97%, the DXY is 102.67, US 10-year yield sits at 5.00%, and Gold (XAUUSD) at $4,036.62..

EURUSD | Range 1.1115-1.1170

EURUSD is at the bottom of its overnight range due to broad-based US dollar demand. The hawkish rhetoric from a variety of Fed officials is weighing on the single currency. Germany’s final October CPI confirmed inflation at 2.8% y/y, and it was ignored.

GBPUSD | Range 1.3297-1.3356

Sterling is trading at its session low on the heels of renewed US dollar strength after a 50 bp rate hike discussion was injected into the FOMC’s December meeting. Traders ignored yesterday’s comments from BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli. She refused to rule out a December hike, but said she needs more information before committing to it. Meanwhile, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said it expects UK inflation to stay above target for four years, peaking at 4.4% in 2027.

USDJPY | Range 158.67-159.38

USDJPY has rallied to its highest level in nearly a month, despite a solid Reuters Tankan report with manufacturer sentiment at +27, the best in over five years. Instead, traders only had eyes for rising Treasury yields and so far, are not concerned about FX intervention.

AUDUSD | Range 0.6852-0.6886

AUDUSD drifted lower on the back of the hot US inflation report and weak Australian economic surveys. The Westpac consumer sentiment index sank to 78.2 in November from 80.4, its weakest since late 2022, and home lending plunged 15.5% in the third quarter. The economy is obviously feeling the effects from the five RBA hikes this year.

USDMXN | Range 18.5631-18.6737

USDMXN was swept up in the wave of US dollar demand following yesterday’s US CPI numbers and Fed rhetoric and consolidated the gains in a quiet overnight session. Mexican industrial production fell 1.3% y/y in September (forecast 3.5%).

CHINA

PBoC Fix   6.7191 vs exp. 6.6855 (prev. 6.7167)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.41% to 4,075.71

.

Sources: Investing.com, Newsquawk, Associated Press, FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, Business Recorder, TradingView