November 3, 2025

USDCAD open: 1.4046, overnight range 1.4009-1.4063, close, 1.4013

The clocks turned back, and the Loonie turned down. USDCAD rallied on wide-spread US dollar demand from Powell’s hawkish-sounding comments and due to the hostile US trade actions directed at Canada. Prices climbed through the overnight peak of 1.4046 on the back of higher US Treasury yields.

Tomorrow, the Carney government unveils its long delayed budget with a real risk that it fails a non-confidence vote, which is rumoured to be the outcome that the Liberals want.

WTI oil traded in a 60.50-61.59 range with prices rising in Asia then dropping in Europe. Opec and friends hiked production in December by 137,000 as expected but delayed production increases from January-March 2026.  

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish after the break above resistance at 1.4010 and are looking to break above resistance at 1.4060 to extend gains to 1.4090.  A move below 1.4010 targets 1.3960/

The medium-term technicals are bullish inside a 1.3850-1.4100 consolidation range underpinned by support from the 200 day moving average (1.3948).

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.4010 and 1.3980. Resistance is at 1.4060 and 1.4090.
Today’s Range: 11.4010-1.4090

US Dollar Flexing Muscles

The US dollar is starting the week with a bid. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s assertion that a December rate cut was “not a done deal—far from it,” and the thaw in US/China trade tensions is fueling gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gained 4.0% since September 17.

Meanwhile, Fed officials are chirping. Fed Chair candidate Christopher Waller pushed back against Powell’s claim that the government shutdown prevents policymakers from getting a clear picture of the economy. Waller said, “The fog story has got to stop. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn’t tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn’t mean to stop, and that’s the right thing to do with policies—to continue cutting.”

Temporary Governor Stephen Miran warned that the Fed risked driving the economy into a recession if it did not swiftly lower rates.

Two other Fed policymakers (non-voters) were opposed to cutting rates. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said, “This economic outlook didn’t call for cutting rates.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock was concerned about persistent inflation.

Taking Stock

Asian equity indexes closed with gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.97%, Japan’s TOPIX gained 0.94%, and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.15%.

As of 6:10 am PT, the German DAX, is up 0.72% while the French CAC-40 index has lost 0.17%. The UK FTSE 100 index is flat.  S&P 500 futures are up 0.42%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 99.96. The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.115%, and Gold (XAUUSD) is 4017.36

EURUSD

EURUSD continued its downward glide in a 1.1508-1.1542 range. ExxonMobil’s CEO threatened to exit Europe if the EU changes its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which could result in a 5% tax on Exxon’s global revenue. German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI results were as expected at 49.6 and 50, respectively.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD traded in a 1.3118-1.3149 band due to broad US dollar demand and fresh talk that the Bank of England will cut rates at Thursday’s meeting. Traders are also leery about the upcoming budget on November 26 and its elevated risk of new tax hikes.

USDJPY

USDJPY traded in a 153.99-154.29 band underpinned by firm US Treasury yields, lingering disappointment after the BoJ left its rates unchanged, and the Fed’s hawkish bias. In addition, the jury is still out about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal policy plans, as she favors stimulus spending. Japanese markets were closed for Cultural Day.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD traded firmer in a 0.6539-0.6563 range. Prices were underpinned by the thaw in China/US trade tensions and the rise in Australia’s inflation gauge (actual 3.1% m/m in October compared to 3.0% previously). The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged tomorrow.

USDMXN

USDMXN is at the bottom of its 18.5151-18.5714 overnight range in early NY, with improved US/Mexico trade relations weighing on prices. Banxico is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Friday.

China

PBoC Fix: 7.0867 vs exp. 7.1171 (Prev. 7.0880)

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.27% to 4653.40

RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.6 (forecast 50.9, previous 51.2)

China Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the Jinping/Trump meeting “a historic moment” adding “Many believe the meeting marks the start of a more stable and manageable period in bilateral relations. The return of China-US economic and trade dialogue has also boosted global market confidence,”

FX High, Low, Open

Sources: Investing.com, Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance, US Census Bureau, Trading Economics