USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2675-1.2780
USDCAD started to climb on Friday (from 1.2475) touching 1.2780 in early NY trading, coinciding with the drop in oil prices from $52.40/bbl last Thursday, to $47.60/bbl today. Month-end demand for US dollars acerbated the move.That move was interrupted by better-than-expected Canadian GDP data (Jan. -0.1% m/m vs. Forecast of -0.2%) which drove USDCAD back down to 1.2718. The details were less than stellar which will limit any addition USDCAD losses
Today’s US data was a mixed bag. The Case Shiller Home Price Index beat the forecasts while the Chicago PMI missed, continuing the trend of uneven US data.
The US dollar is ending the month on a strong note with gains against 9 of the G-10 currencies seen overnight (JPY was the exception). Concern that the Peoples Bank of China could ease over the weekend and month-end portfolio rebalancing flows lifted the US dollar. A booming Australian housing market could temper the RBA enthusiasm for an April Rate cut. EURUSD was choppy but offered, ignoring positive Eurozone inflation data and record low employment data for Germany.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.2690, looking for a break of resistance at 1.2750 to extend gains to 1.2780 and then 1.2820. A move below 1.2690 opens up a further drop top to 1.2650 and then 1.2610. Longer term, USDCAD is merely churning within the broad 1.2360-1.2820 band seen on the following chart. For today, USD support is 1.2690 and 1.2650. Resistance is at 1.2750 and 1.2820
Today’s Range 1.2690-1.2780
Chart: USDCAD 1 hour with intraday uptrend noted