Percent change in US dollar
Source: Saxo Bank/IFXA
FX Recap and outlook: FX markets were choppy but locked in well-defined ranges in overnight price action. Chinese equities surged higher, in contrast with the rest of the major global indexes. European stocks are lower, and S&P 500 futures are flat. All in all, a sleepy, uneventful session.
New US coronavirus cases topped 60,000 yesterday, another single-day record. The US/Canada border is closed until July 31. Soon, Canadians will demand a wall across the 49th parallel to contain brain-dead, American’s who continue to exercise their eleventh amendment rights (the right to bear infectious diseases) Those cases are keeping “risk-on demand” at bay.
EURUSD dipsy-doodled in a 1.1263-93 band. Downside pressure stemmed from yesterday’s EU Commission downgrade of 2020 GDP growth, while losses were limited by hopes of a Euro area recovery, helped by the EU COVID-19 Relief plan. EURUSD continues to bounce in a 1.1170-1.1350 range.
GBPUSD is trading in NY in the middle of its 1.2510-1.2567 range. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s mini budget a number of measures to help job creation while promising to put public finances on a “sustainable footing.” GBPUSD barely budged on the news. The GBPUSD uptrend is intact above 1.2470, looking for a break of 1.2590 to extend gains to 1.2800.
USDJPY traded in a 107.44-107.70 range. Safe-haven demand for yen and soft US Treasury yields weighed on prices . The Economy Watchers survey data was better than expected but ignored by markets.
Traders continue to take a shine to gold. XAUUSD punched through resistance at $1,800.00 to reach $1,804.06, after closing in NY at $1,795.23. Prices have risen $44.46/ounce since July 1.
USDCAD is the only G-10 currency pair to have risen since yesterday’s NY open. That maybe due to “Sell North America” sentiment in FX markets which saw USDMXN higher as well. Canada and Mexico may be lumped in with concerns about the renewed COVID-19 outbreak in the US.
USDCAD direction is also closely correlated with Wall Street price action, lately. S&P futures moved into positive territory and USDCAD inched lower. Finance Minister Bill Morneau is expected to announce a Federal Budget well-north of $300 billion an is susceptible to further gains, depending on how Mr Morneau spins the news.
There are not any economic reports of note.
USDCAD Technicals: The short term technicals are bullish above 1.3525, looking for a decisive break above 1.3640 to extend gains to 1.3824 which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June range. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3550and 1.3510. Resistance is at 1.3620 and 1.3660. Today’s Range 1.3550-1.3630
Chart: USDCAD daily
Source: Saxo Bank