USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2132-1.2190    

USDCAD drilled through intraday support at 1.2145-50 on a tick higher in WTI oil prices to $57.49/bbl which is a bit perplexing considering the headlines.  The oil glut that is straining storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma has spread to the Permian Basin in West Texas. In addition, the Saudi deputy oil minister suggested that Saudi Arabia had no intention of curtailing production.

The first day of the last week of April started with a fizzle. New Zealand was closed for Anzac Day and Australia traded like they were, as well. Europe wasn’t much better although EURUSD did decline from the highs. Greece is still the key known unknown. The Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis appears to have upset European and IMF lenders resulting in the Greek Prime Minister reshuffling the negotiating team.

USDCAD direction remains tied to WTI oil prices and general US dollar direction. WTI prices have been rising steadily since the middle of March but gains have stalled in the $58.00-$60.00/bbl area. A break of the top will drive USDCAD to test major support in the 1.1990-1.2050 area. Wednesday could be the day, but only if the FOMC statement is considered doveish and indicates that the Fed is on hold for longer than anticipated.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are unchanged from yesterday.  In fact, the 30 minute chart shown below would show a fairly stable vital signs if it was for a hospital patient. For today, the 1.2180-1.2280 range is likely to remain intact although the short term bias is for a weaker USDCAD.

Today’s Range 1.2110-1.2190

.Chart: USDCAD Daily with support and resistance levels (red lines)