USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2627-1.2686              

The US dollar was already trading softly when the US Durable Goods report for March was released and then it got softer. The headline Durable Goods data disappointed, rising only 0.8% in March vs. the consensus for a 1.8% gain while Durable goods, ex-transportation came in at -0.2% vs. forecasts for a gain of 0.5%. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the S&P/Case Shiller Home price index missed the forecast as well (Actual 5.4% vs. forecast 5.5%).  This data doesn’t bode well for those expecting tomorrow’s FOMC statement to open the door to a June rate hike.

Overnight, for the second day in a row, FX markets were fairly quiet, particularly in Asia. Tomorrows, FOMC, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decisions kept traders in “wait and see” mode.  USDJPY drifted lower in part due to headlines from various Japanese official’s downplaying the need for stimulus at this meeting.

The FX market showed some signs of life in Europe.  The US dollar was sold across the G10 spectrum although the moves were relatively shallow.  GBPUSD gained the most even though another Brexit poll showed support for the Stay side declining slightly. On the other hand, UK bookmakers have the probability of the Stay side winning the referendum at 74%.  EURUSD wandered aimlessly.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz was speaking in New York this morning but his remarks had zero impact on the Canadian dollar.

USDCAD will likely remain below 1.2690 for the balance of the day, undermined by the general soft US dollar profile and stable to firm WTI prices.

 USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are slightly bearish while trading below 1.2690 but lacking motivation to crack intraday support at 1.2620. A break above 1.2690 risks another retest of 1.2750 while a move below 1.2620 puts support at 1.2550 in focus. The reality is that the current 1.2590-1.2730 range will remain intact until after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting

Today’s Range 1.2610-1.2690

Chart: USDCAD  30 minute