The Jackson Hole Symposium kicks into high gear today. Markets are eagerly looking forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powells speech slated for 10:00 am this morning. He is expected to reiterate that the Fed is independent and express concern about the impact of tariffs and trade disputes on global and domestic growth. This year’s Symposium loses a little lustre because of the absence of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, Bano of England Governor Mark Carney, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. USDCAD traders may be interested in Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s CNBC interview at 1615 GMT https://www.cnbc.com/closing-bell/
US July Durable Goods Orders data are due (Forecast -0.5%, m/m vs previous 0.8%, ex-transportation 0.5% vs previous 0.2%, m/m) A steep drop in aircraft orders is behind the headline forecast. The FX market reaction will be muted ahead of Mr Powell’s speech.
In Europe, German Q2 GDP was as forecast (Actual 0.5%, q/q) EURUSD bounced inside a 1.1535-78 range and opened in New York at the top. GBPUSD extended overnight gains in early New York trading and popped to 1.2855. The UK government released plans for a “no-deal” Brexit. The Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond released a letter on Treasury’s website warning of a 7.7% hit to GDP over the next 15 years if the “no-deal Brexit scenario prevailed.
AUDUSD rallied after Scott Morrison was sworn-in as Prime Minister after incumbent Malcomb Turnbull was ousted. AUDUSD rallied from 0.7239-0.7288
The US/China trade talks ended without any fanfare. Oil prices are higher because of potential sanctions on Iran oil. Asia equity indices were mostly higher, European bourses are in the green and US futures point to a higher open on Wall Street.
The Canadian dollar opened in New York unchanged from yesterday’s close, lagging gains made by the rest of the G-10 majors against the US dollar. Only the Japanese yen lost ground. USDCAD traders are wary over the Nafta negotiation. US and Mexico talks will continue next week. Canada is not invited.
USDCAD Technical Outlook
USDCAD is consolidating the two day uptrend inside a tight 1.3060-1.3100 range. Yesderday’s failure to extend losses below 1.3000 and the subsequent rally above 1.3060 has shifted the focus to 1.3100. A break above that level will lead to 1.3170. A break of support at 1.3060 puts 1.3000 back in play.
Today’s Range 1.3020-1.3120