USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2327-1.2395    

FX volumes are down across the board in Europe as the weekend looms and another EU/Greece meeting is on the agenda. The US dollar has had a pretty good week.  As of 7:00 am it has gained against the entire G-10 spectrum. The RBNZ contributed to the US dollar’s rise, claiming that NZD is at “unjustifiable and unsustainable levels”, which some interpret as “Bank-speak” for “FX intervention ahead”.

USDCAD started the day in New York with a modestly bid tone and managed to grind all the way to 1.2395 from 1.2355 before reversing and drifting back to its opening levels. Today’s movement is merely a reflection of a “quote and cover” market rather than one with any direction.

It will be an eventful and volatile week coming up, with the bulk of the USDCAD action occurring on Tuesday.  That is the day that Greece needs to pay the IMF.  It is also the day Canadian GDP gets released and it is month end, quarter end and half-year end for portfolio managers.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish and in a modest uptrend channel since June 18. The bottom of the channel is currently 1.2325 and the top is at 1.2450.  However there is “multi-top “resistance at 1.2390-00 which has capped short term rallies. A break above this resistance will extend gains to 1.2420 and then 1.2450.  A break below 1.2325 may lead to a test of 1.2260. Meanwhile the 2 week range of 1.2155-1.2420 remains intact.  For today, USD support is at 1.2325, 1.2305 and 1.2280.  Resistance is at 1.2395 and 1.2420.

Today’s Range 1.2325-1.2395

Chart: USDCAD hourly with uptrend channel