June 24, 2019

USDCAD Open (6:00 am EDT) 1.3182-85      Overnight Range 1.3183-1.3216

The US dollar extended Friday’s losses during a somewhat subdued overnight session.  FX traders were not impressed with President Trump’ tweeted threat of more sanctions against Iran and didn’t bother to buy the usual safe-haven currencies.  However, oil traders got spooked.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil spiked from $57.59/barrel to $58.20/b in Asia, then drifted down to $57.90 in early New York trading. 

Saturday, Trump tweeted “Iran cannot have Nuclear Weapons! Under the terrible Obama plan, they would have been on their way to Nuclear in a short number of years, and existing verification is not acceptable. We are putting major additional Sanctions on Iran on Monday. I look forward to the day that….Sanctions come off Iran, and they become a productive and prosperous nation again – The sooner the better!” 

Russia stirred the pot.  Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Tass that Russia and its allies will take steps to counter new US sanctions on Iran, adding the US is deliberately raising tensions.

In Asia Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe questioned the effectiveness of monetary policy easing, saying if everyone is easing, the effect on the exchange rate is offset.  Regardless, AUDUSD and NZDUSD added to Friday’s gains.

USDJPY traded sideways just above its 2019 bottom.  Prices continue to be weighed down by soft US Treasury yields, with a dash of risk aversion demand thrown in,

EURUSD added to Friday’s gains supported by last week’s dovish Fed bias while ignoring ECB President Mario Draghi’s warning of the need for further monetary policy stimulus. The German IFO report was on the soft side.  June Current Assessment beat forecasts and the previous reading.  Business Climate was better than forecast but softer than last months result.  Expectations were lower than expected and in May.

GBPUSD was steady.  Traders ignored Tory Leadership front-runner Boris Johnson’s weekend domestic issues which appeared to involve red wine and a sofa.

The surge in oil prices, Fed Chair Powell’s dovish epiphany and broad US dollar weakness, drove USDCAD below 11.3200 again.  Traders are looking ahead to Friday when the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and April GDP data are released.

The US and Canadian economic calendars are empty today.  Traders will be waiting for news about the latest US sanctions against Iran while biding their time until the G-20 meeting at the end of the week.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish The break of support at 1.3240 suggests further losses below 1.3138 to 1.3110.  A break above 1.3240 would extend gains to 1.3280.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3160 and 1.3130.  Resistance 1.3220 and 1.3240.  Today’s Range 1.3130-1.3220

Chart: USDCAD  daily