US Q2 GDP was revised higher, to 3.1% from the 3.0% previously recorded. Initial Jobless claims were a tad worse for wear, rising to 272,000. The news barely caused a ripple in FX markets, mostly because it was expected.
Overnight, there was plenty of fodder for traders. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged and delivered a rather neutral statement. NZDUSD rallied on the news, rising from 0.7198 to 0.7230. The rally reversed, and prices retreated to 0.7169 by the European morning because of broad US dollar strength.
AUDUSD was under pressure all night thanks to Trump’s stimulative tax plan.
EURUSD slumped in Asia as traders reacted to the Trump tax plan but the down move stalled in Europe. Better than expected Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Actual 113.0 vs forecast 112.) lifted EURUSD from 117.22 to 117.82.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney crushed GBPUSD when he said that the BoE could not nullify damage to the UK economy from Brexit. However, GBPUSD recovered those losses quickly and climbed from the overnight low of 1.3344 to 1.3425 in New York trading.
Oil prices traded sideways overnight but rallied sharply in New York. WTI soared from $51.86/b to $52.82. on concerns of supply disruption over the Iraq/Kurdistan region dispute.
The Canadian dollar was beaten with the ugly stick in the past 24 hours. USDCAD rose from 1.2335 yesterday to 1.2517 in Europe in a Poloz and Trump fueled move.
Wednesday, in a speech in Newfoundland, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz appeared to discount the prospect of another rate hike in October. He told the audience that the BoC is data dependent, that rates are not on a predetermined path and that the BoC will take a gradual approach. USDCAD rallied breaking resistance in the 1.2420-40 area, triggering stop losses. The rally ran out of steam at 1.2480, where it closed. USDCAD was also supported by President Trump’s new tax plan.
USDCAD started retracing the move in the European morning and prices declined to 1.2460 in Toronto trading.
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above 1.2380 and supported by the break of the 1.2420-40 resistance area. A decisive break above 1.2550 would extend gains to 1.2750. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2440 and 1.2420. Resistance is at 1.2520 and 1.2550.
Today’s Range 1.2450-1.2540