USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3220-1.3277      

The Federal Open Market Committee will release their interest rate decision and statement at 2:00 pm. The prevailing wisdom is that the lack of a press conference makes it extremely unlikely that they will raise rates.  Many are hoping that the statement omits references to recent “global economic and financial developments”. If so, the statement will be viewed as hawkish and as a signal that December is a go for lift-off.  Other’s just hope for a degree of clarity in the statement.  One thing is for sure and that is that someone will be disappointed with the statement.

The FOMC statement worries took a back seat to data in Asia. Sharply weaker than expected Australian CPI data knocked the Aussie for a loop and opened the door for a rate cut next week. Japanese Retail Sales data did not have the same effect on USDJPY. It was weaker than expected but no one cared and USDJPY hovered around the New York closing levels. The European session saw a quiet morning with EURUSD and GBPUSD fairly quiet within narrow ranges.

USDCAD hugged the 1.3260-70 level throughout the Asian session but drifted lower in Europe when oil prices moved higher. WTI rose from a low of $43.06 to $43.67 and that was all the Loonie needed. That trend has continued during so far, during the New York session as oil is back at its overnight highs.  Unfortunately, today’s move is just noise until the FOMC statement.

USDCAD traders will be keeping their eye on the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude Oil stocks change report which is out just before the FOMC statement.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday technicals are bearish following the rejection above resistance at 1.3280 and the break below 1.3230.  The move below 1.3230 will target the 1.3160 uptrend from October 15. For today, support is at 1.3210, 1.3190 and 1.3160.  Resistance is at 1.3270 and 1.3340.

Today’s forecast range is 1.3180-1.3270

Chart USDCAD 30 minute

CAD 28TH 2015