USDCAD Overnight Range 1.1982-1.2060    

Oil prices are sliding in conjunction with a broad based US dollar rally which has driven USDCAD to probe resistance in the 1.2060 area. A decisive move above this level will put 1.2120 in play. WTI oil prices are down to $58.54/bbl down from $60.70 yesterday. The long weekend in Canada may be adding to USDCAD gains as positions get adjusted. Today’s Canadian Manufacturing Shipments data blasted above forecasts rising 2.9% (forecast 1.2%) and completely erased last month’s losses.  USDCAD traders didn’t care and continued to buy dollars.

Kiwi came under renewed pressure in Asia on negative news from dairy giant, Fonterra.  AUDUSD retreated in sympathy. USDJPY showed signs of life, breaking above near term resistance at 1.1935 on a report that the BoJ was pondering a Reserve Rate cut. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD traded lower in a fairly quiet European session.

The key focus for next week will be Wednesday’s release of the FOMC minutes.

USDCAD technical outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals bullish while trading above 1.2005 looking for a break above the 1.2060 area to extend gains to 1.2120. A move below 1.2000 will lead to 1.1960 and then another test of 1.1930. Above 1.2160 would suggest that a short term bottom is in place and lead to 1.1980-1.2260 consolidation.

The medium term uptrend from last September continues to be intact above 1.1930.

Today’s Range 1.2020-1.2110

Chart: USDCAD 1 hour with break of resistance noted