Overnight Range 1.3354-1.3392
US data was mildly disappointing. Jobless claims declined but not as much as was expected and Durable Goods orders were down -0.1% in September vs. the forecast for a gain of 0.1%. Durable Goods, ex-transportation were as expected. The FX reaction to the data was understated at best.
FX markets were a bundle of indecision overnight, continuing to trade choppily within well-defined ranges and hoping that today’s US Durable Goods would provide some direction. It didn’t
NZDUSD shrugged off a wider than expected September trade deficit (Actual -$1.436 million vs. forcast -1.243 million)
The AUDUSD selling pressure evident in the New York session continued and then accelerated with the break of support at 0.7635
USDJPY was drifting higher when Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda suggested that the BoJ wouldn’t be doing any more easing in the near term. That move was reversed during the European session on US rate hike concerns.
Sterling had a good day and a bad day. After sliding steadily throughtout the Asia session GBPUSD spiked from 1.2195 to 1.2278 on better than expected GDP data. Q3 GDP rose 0.5%, q/q vs. forecast 0.3% and 2.3%, y/y.
The rally didn’t last. Traders quickly realized that until Brexit negotiations get started, the GDP information is too bakcward looking.
EURUSD dipped to a low of 1.0890 in Asia and climbed steadily to 1.0925 by the New York open.
Oil prices traded in a very narrow range overnight torn between yesterday’s EIA Crude stocks data showing a drawdown and apparent dissention within Opec around production cap exemptions.
USDCAD traded in a very narrow range. It probed topside resistance when WTI oil prices dropped to $48.98/b. Both recovered slightly by the start of New York trading. The downward pressure on WTI prices will keep USDCAD traders focussed on 1.3420 and higher.
USDCAD technical outlook.
The intraday and short term USDCAD technicals are bullish and looking for a break above resistance in the 1.3390-1.3410 area to extend gains to 1.3550. The move through 1.3310 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 2016 range hung a target on the 50% retracement area which is at 1.3571. The intraday uptrend remains intact while prices are above 1.3320. For today, USDCAD support is a1.3320 and 1.3280. Resistance is at 1.3390, 1.3420 and 1.3460
Today’s Range 1.3320-1.3420
Chart; USDCAD Daily
