The Loonie is soaring, dropping from 1.2565 since Toronto walked in, due to the unexplained 5.6% jump in WTI prices (Currently $51.41/bbl) with a dash of general US dollar weakness thrown in. A softer than expected US retail sales report is behind the US dollar sell-off vs. the majors. US Retail Sales was a negative 0.8% vs. forecast of -0.5% which has served to muddle the rate hike waters.

It wasn’t all fun and games overnight, especially for long AUDUSD positions. A weaker-than-expected Australian employment report sent AUDUSD plunging while increasing fears of another rate cut. USDJPY couldn’t break 120.30-50 and sank on a report that the BoJ thought a falling JPY would hurt consumer sentiment.

EURUSD seems to have shrugged off news of a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire while the EU/Greece negotiations are still on-going. The Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report was seen as hawkish and GBPUSD rallied strongly.

USDCAD technical Outlook

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish following this morning’s break of support at 1.2540.  The plunged halted at the next major support level of 1.2440, representing a series of bottoms following the January 15 BoC rate cut. Additional support is seen at 1.2420 representing the uptrend from the end of December, which if broken will extend losses to 1.2115.  For today, USD support in the 1.2420-40 area should hold.

Today’s Range 1.2440-1.2540

feb 12th