USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2925-1.3014
USDCAD opened in New York pretty close to where it closed on Friday after spending an uneventful overnight session drifting within a narrow trading band. Without any data to focus on, USDCAD traders turned their sights to rising oil prices and promptly bought Loonies once the session got started. WTI bounced from $39.32 to $40.25 supposedly due to anticipation of a positive outcome to the Doha Opec meeting. For what its worth, Goldman Sachs analysts don’t believe that production cuts will make much of a difference.
Uneventful isn’t how USDJPY or GBPUSD trading would be described. USDJPY opened with a modest bid and rose to 108.32 before being overwhelmed by sellers who drove the pair down to 107.62. European traders bought the dip and took USDJPY back to the Asia high. GBPUSD was drifting sideways in Europe when it suddenly spiked from 1.4105 to 1.4233, triggering stops above 1. 4170. There wasn’t any reason for either of the moves. A complete lack of data suggests the moves were just due to intraday flows. The EURUSD range was fairly tight but trading was choppy.
The only major data overnight came from China. CPI and PPI data were close enough to forecasts to not cause alarm and they didn’t.
Wednesday’s Bank of Canada interest rate decision statement and Monetary Policy Report may provide a bit of support to the Canadian dollar on anticipation that the BoC will offer a positive outlook. Speculative positions as reported by the IMM have shifted to Long CAD for the first time since May 2015.
There are no data releases today.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD downtrend from 1.3180 remains intact while prices are below 1.3005 which is guarding additional resistance at 1.3020. The break of intraday support at 1.2940 will extend losses to 1.2900-10 and below that a test of major support in the 1.2840-60 area. A move above 1.3020 may lead to a test of 1.3070. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2940 and 1.2910. Resistance is at 1.3000-20 and 1.3070.
Today’s Range 1.2870-1.2970
Chart: USDCAD hourly