May  22, 2019

USDCAD Open (6:00 am EDT) 1.3388-91   Overnight Range  1.3388-1.3414

GBPUSD and Prime Minister Theresa May’s “new” Brexit plan got crunched yesterday, and the currency continued lower today. Yesterday, the Prime Minister outlined her new plan, which was very much like her old plan. This one wasn’t well received, either.    GBPUSD soared prior to Ms May’s speech, rising from 1.2714 to 1.2811 but collapsed to 1.2695 when traders and politicians realized that it was the same Brexit deal that was rejected three times. Prices dropped to 1.2663 in European trading today.  UK Retail Price Index, PPI and CPI data releases were mostly as expected but took a back seat to politics.

The rest of the G-10 majors were sidelined and opened in New York close to unchanged from Tuesday’s closing levels.  Traders are biding their time until the FOMC minutes from the May 1 policy meeting are released. The minutes are not likely to spur FX activity.  Various Fed speakers have echoed Chair Jerome Powell’s view for a patient approach to monetary policy.

EURUSD flat-lined.  Traders are sidelined due to risks from Brexit and the EU elections

AUDUSD dipped in Asia when soft economic data reinforced the odds of a rate cut on June 4.  NZDUSD tracked AUDUSD lower.  USDJPY climbed to 110.61 in early Asia, then retreated to 110.37 Prices are supported by the easing of safe-haven demand.

WTI oil dropped on anticipation that the Energy Information Administration will report higher crude inventories this morning, following yesterday’s API data showing a 2.4 million barrel increase in the week ending May 17.  Price also eased after American officials said the threat of attacks by Iran has been “put on hold.”

USDCAD is within spitting distance of key support at 1.3370.  The drop comes on the heels of the easing(somewhat) of the hostile US/Iran rhetoric and following comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard who said: “I am concerned we may have slightly overdone it with our December rate hike, but I was pleased that the committee pivoted.” Bullard is a well known “dove” so his comments should be taken with a grain of salt.

Canada March Retail Sales are forecast to rise 1.0%.  The gains will be attributed to higher gas prices which should limit the impact on the currency.  The US data calendar is empty.

USDCAD Technicals

The intraday USDCAD technicals flipped back to bearish with the break below 1.3440, yesterday and the hourly chart is bearish while prices are below 1.3420.  There is a lot of support in the 1.3370 area which if broken will extend losses to 1.3330 and then 1.32654.  A break above 1.3420 suggests additional 1.3370-1.3520 range trading.   For Today, USDCAD support is 1.3370 and 1.3330.  Resistance is 1.3420 and 1.3460.   Today’s Range: 1.3370-1.3440

Chart: USDCAD  hourly