USDCAD   Overnight Range 1.2947-1.3020      

The US dollar is back in demand following a “Dove-awkish”FOMC statement and slightly better-than-expected US data this morning that helps to keep September rate hike hopes alive.  USDCAD touched 1.3020 when GDP posted a 2.3% Q2 gain (forecast 2.6%) and Jobless Claims were better-than-expected at 267,000.

Overnight, the US dollar climbed across the board (accept against GBP) in post FOMC trading.  The statement had enough in it to appease both hawks and doves.   Hawks grasped a Wall Street Journal article that touted a shift in the reference to unemployment as evidence that they will hike rates in September.  Dove’s noted that with two employment reports and other key data releases ahead of the September meeting, nothing had changed. Still, the US dollar bulls won the day (and overnight session).

USDCAD rebounded from a “spike” low of 1.2863 yesterday which occurred on news to a surprise drop in US energy stocks.  WTI is well off yesterday’s low (currently $48.89/bbl.  Further gains in WTI will limit USDCAD gains.

Technical Outlook

The intraday technicals are bullish.  The break above 1.2930 and again above 1.2960 negated the intraday downtrend from the start of the week suggesting further upside to 1.3050.  A move below 1.2910 argues for further losses to 1.2860.  For today, USD support is at 1.2960, 1.2930 and 1.2910.  Resistance is at 1.2990, 1.3020 and 1.3050

Today’s Range 1.2960-1.3050


Chart: USDCAD hourly with uptrend