The US dollar opened marginally firmer against EUR, CAD and CHF, unchanged against JPY, GBP and AUD and just take higher against NZD. This mornings US Trade report showed September Import prices a little firmer than forecast (Actual 0.7% vs forecast 0.5%) and Export prices up 0.8% (forecast 0.4%) The impact of the data was limited due to hurricane distortions.
There are enough distractions around to keep traders fingers in their noses rather than on their keyboards.
Spain has arrested two Catalan leaders for alleged sedition.
Kurdish fighters and Iraqi forces are still fighting in and around the Kirkuk oil fields, giving oil a boost.
The “Who will be the next Fed Chair?” debate is raging. John Taylor, inventor of the Taylor Rule (interest rate forecasting model), was interviewed by President Trump and is now the front-runner for Janet’s job. Ms.Yellen has the pleasure of being interviewed by Trump on Thursday.
EU/UK Brexit negotiation headlines continue to keep GBPUSD traders on their toes.
In Canada, NAFTA worries have underpinned USDCAD. President Trump’s assurance to Just-um Trudeau that for Canada, NAFTA would merely be tweaked is proving to be #FAKENEWS.
EURUSD drifted lower throughout the overnight session. The break of support at 1.1760 has turned the short-term technicals bearish with a break of 1.1710 putting 1.1510 in play. A lower than expected German ZEW survey added to EURUSD’s woes.
USDJPY ticked higher in a narrow 112.04-112.29 range, supported by the fresh hawkish US interest rate outlook.
GBPUSD traded sideways in Asia. Prices jumped to 1.3284 around the release of UK PPI and CPI data but collapsed immediately afterwards, dropping to 1.3178 in New York. Bank of England MPC member Dave Ramsden said that he wasn’t close to voting for an interest rate hike.
The Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes presented an upbeat outlook for the Australia economy. It was expected, so AUDUSD didn’t react.
New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 0.5% q/q and 1.9% year over year, beating forecasts. NZDUSD rallied on the news, but the move didn’t last
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish. USDCAD is flirting with resistance near the top of the uptrend channel that is bound by 1.2500 at the bottom and 1.2570 at the top. A decisive break above 1.2590 could turn nasty and extend gains to 1.2870. A break of support at 1.2440 would negate the upward pressure and suggest further 1.2250-1.2570 consolidation. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2520 and 1.2470. Resistance is at 1.2550 and 1.2580.
Today’s Range 1.2500-1.2570
Chart: USDCAD 1 hour
